Fig. 2

Plots of parasitaemia, duration, and patency. A Shows a scatter plot of the log10 of the daily average parastemia among patent infections conditioned on continued infection. The blue lines are a three piecewise linear fit in three parts, with a gray shaded region representing the middle of the three. B Shows a plot of the empirical survival function of infections that had positive measures of parasitaemia on or after that day of infection. The blue curve represents the best fit gamma survival curve, that is the complement of the corresponding gamma CDF. Finally C is a plot of the proportion patent conditioned on continued infection. The gray shaded region is the same highlighted in panel A, showing that during the initial growth phase nearly all infections remain patent; then patency drops about 20 percent over a short time, then it slowly decays to around 10 percent by day 250