Fig. 6

The black points in A represent the transmission efficiency, measured through the fraction of fed mosquitoes who developed sporozoites, against the log10 gametocytaemia measured on that day for each individual on every day they were gametocyte positive. Treated infections were not included in this analysis. Blue points are a rolling average of transmission efficiency as a function of log10 gametocytaemia, and the green curve is a sigmoid curve fit to these points with weights given by the number of points included in their rolling average. B Shows the daily average transmission efficency as a function of infection age, with the green curve representing the measured log10 daily average gametocytaemia composed with the sigmoid fit in A, showing good qualitative agreement. As the relationship between gametocytaemia and transmission efficiency is highly heterogeneous and zero-inflated, zero-inflated beta distributions were fit to binned values of gametocytaemia to quantify this. C shows the degree of zero inflation, that is the fraction of mosquito feedings resulting in no infections at all, as a function of log10 gametocytaemia. The blue sigmoid curve was fit to these points, showing the apparent zero-inflation decreases with increasing gametocytaemia. Finally, D–I are histograms of transmission efficiency for a given range of gametocytaemia conditioned on nonzero measurements, with beta distributions fit to each. Despite the high degree of heterogeneity, density can be seen to aggregate to the right with increasing gametocytaemia