Table 1 Priors as used in the state-space population models of Anopheles funestus and the estimated posteriors mean and 95% credible intervals
Parameter | Prior distribution | Posterior distribution | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Notation | Description | Type | Source | Mean | 95-percentiles | Mean | 95-percentiles |
\({s}_{e}\) | Eggs daily survival rate | Beta | This study | 0.794 | [0.619, 1] | 0.789 | [0.776, 0.804] |
\(\lambda\) | Eggs development period | Beta | This study | 0.5 | [0.4, 0.6] | 0.499 | [0.485, 0.514] |
\({\beta }_{0}\) | Baseline larval daily survival | Beta | This study | 0.923 | [0.801, 1] | 0.950 | [0.943, 0.956] |
\({C}_{0}\) | Baseline larval development period | Beta | This study | 0.063 | [0.055, 0.071] | 0.063 | [0.062, 0.064] |
\({s}_{p}\) | Pupae daily survival rate | Beta | This study | 0.941 | [0.874, 1] | 0.944 | [0.930, 0.950] |
\({p}_{r}\) | Pupae development period | Beta | This study | 0.522 | [0.253, 0.792] | 0.525 | [0.506, 0.546] |
\({\varphi }_{0}\) | Baseline unfed daily survival | Beta | This study | 0.935 | [0.877, 0.992] | 0.937 | [0.933, 0.941] |
\({a}_{r}\) | Unfed development period | Beta | This study | 0.20 | [0.19, 0.21] | 0.200 | [0.198, 0.201] |
\({\theta }_{0}\) | Baseline blood-fed daily survival | Beta | This study | 0.807 | [0.654, 0.961] | 0.810 | [0.799, 0.820] |
\({f}_{r}\) | Blood-fed daily transition rate | Beta | This study | 0.25 | [0.05, 045] | 0.269 | [0.256, 0.280] |
\({\alpha }_{0}\) | Baseline gravid daily survival | Beta | This study | 0.904 | [0.848, 0.961] | 0.903 | [0.899, 0.907] |
\({v}_{r}\) | Gravid daily transition rate | Beta | This study | 0.333 | [0.133, 0.533] | 0.311 | [0.297, 0.324] |
\({b}_{0}\) | No. eggs/female (Per capita fecundity) | Beta | This study | 80 | [60, 100] | 78 | |
\(\xi\) | Coefficient of variability | Beta | Uninformative prior | 0.5 | [0.1, 0.9] | 0.79 | [0.810, 0.825] |
\({\omega }_{\eta =f}\) | Coefficient of “Trap biasness” for the blood-fed | Beta | 0.1 | [0.05, 0.15] | 0.122 | [0.117, 0.127] | |
\({\omega }_{\eta =v}\) | Coefficient of “Trap biasness” for the gravid | 0.505*\({\omega }_{f}\) | [0.025,0.076] | 0.062 | [0.059, 0.064] | ||