Table 2 Overview of scenarios and assumptions for projections of expenditure in years one to five post-project

Best case

- Minor donor support to retail sector, workplace partnerships & GMF in Y1-Y2 post-project;

- Support moves to NMCP or self-financing from GMF funds in Y3-Y5;

- Optimistic but feasible growth each year in household purchase of LLINs with add-on features from retail sources;

- Increase of 20% each year in workplace partner contributions;

- Public investments to the GMF from % of DACF (0.5% in Y1-Y3, 0.75% in Y4, 1.0% in Y5);

- Match funding initiative in Y3, with private investments matched 1:1 by donor funding;

- Private investments to the GMF start in Y3 and increase by 10% each year (corporate & individual fundraising)

Very good case

- Minor donor support to retail sector, workplace partnerships & GMF in Y1-Y2 post-project;

- Support moves to NMCP or self-financing from GMF funds in Y3-Y5;

- Conservative growth each year in household purchase of LLINs with add-on features from retail sources;

- Increase of 15% each year in workplace partner contributions;

- Public investments to the GMF from % of DACF (0.5% in Y1-Y5);

- Match funding initiative in Y3, with private investments matched 1:1 by donor funding

- Private investments to the GMF start in Y3 and increase by 5% each year (corporate & individual fundraising)

Good case

- Minor donor support to GMF in Y1-Y2 post-project; self-financing from GMF funds in Y3-Y5;

- No donor support for retail sector or workplace partnerships;

- Minimal growth each year in household purchase of LLINs with add-on features from retail sources;

- Increase of 10% each year in workplace partner contributions;

- Public investments to the GMF from % of DACF (0% in Y1-Y2, 0.25% in Y3, 0.5% in Y4-Y5);

- Match funding initiative in Y3, with private investments matched 1:1 by donor funding

- Private investments to the GMF start in Y3 and increase by 2.5% each year (corporate & individual fundraising)

Poor case

- Minor donor support to GMF in Y1-Y2 post-project; self-financing from GMF funds in Y3-Y5;

- No donor support for retail sector or workplace partnerships;

- Household purchase of LLINs with add-on features from retail sources remains at same level as final year of project (no growth);

- Workplace partner contributions remain same level as final year of project (no growth);

- No public investments to the GMF from % of DACF;

- Match funding initiative in Y3, with private investments matched 1:1 by donor funding

- Private investments to the GMF start in Y3, remain constant in Y4-Y5 (corporate & individual fundraising)

Worst case

- No donor support for retail sector, workplace partnerships or GMF;

- Household purchase of LLINs with add-on features from retail sources remains at same level as final year of project (no growth);

- Workplace partner contributions remain same level as final year of project (no growth);

- No public investments to the GMF from % of DACF;

- No private investments to the GMF (corporate & individual fundraising) or match funding