Using donor funding to catalyse investment in malaria prevention in Ghana: an analysis of the potential impact on public and private sector expenditure

Table 5 Projected annual recurrent expenditure for all stakeholders and annualized donor investment cost used to calculate ratio of non-donor to donor expenditure, based on assumptions for the best case scenario of consequences 5 years post-intervention

	Annual expenditure for each year post-project (2019 USD)
Activity and stakeholder	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Supporting the retail sector
Donor support to stakeholder engagement & workshops¹	11,610	11,610	0	0	0
NMCP support to stakeholder engagement & workshops¹	0	0	5,805	5,805	5,805
LLIN purchase costs to households²	450,894	901,789	1,803,578	1,803,578	1,803,578
Supporting workplace partnerships
Donor support to stakeholder engagement & workshops¹	16,778	16,778	0	0	0
NMCP support to stakeholder engagement & workshops¹	0	0	8,389	8,389	8,389
Annual LLIN costs to workplace partners³	304,015	364,818	437,782	525,338	630,406
Annual BCC activities (seminars etc.)³	52,152	62,582	75,098	90,118	108,141
Other malaria prevention activities³	181,155	217,386	260,863	313,035	375,643
Promotional materials	13,185	13,185	13,185	13,185	13,185
Advocacy for resource mobilization
District Assembly Common Funds for malaria⁴	241,807	241,807	241,807	362,711	483,615
Donor support to Ghana Malaria Foundation (GMF) Secretariat⁵	25,000	25,000	0	0	0
Donor support for GMF match funding⁶	0	0	750,000	0	0
Private investments & fundraising for GMF⁷	0	0	850,000	110,000	121,000
Total recurrent donor expenditure [A]	53,388	53,388	750,000	0	0
Total recurrent public sector expenditure [B]	241,807	241,807	256,001	376,905	497,809
Total recurrent private sector expenditure [C]	1,001,401	1,559,760	3,440,506	2,855,254	3,051,953
Annualized donor investment cost⁸ [D]	735,805	735,805	735,805	735,805	735,805
Ratio non-donor: donor expenditure [(B + C)/(A + D)]	1.58	2.28	2.49	4.39	4.82

¹Assumes donor support for stakeholder engagement activities continues in years 1–2 post-project at the same cost as final project year; these activities then transfer to NMCP with half the cost in years 3–5 post-project
²Assumes proportion of households that buy an LLIN with add-on features from a retail outlet doubles each year in years 1–3 then remains constant in years 4–5 (see Additional file 1 for further details)
³Assumes 20% annual increase in workplace partner costs from final project year levels
⁴Assumes DACF for malaria are allocated as currently intended (0.5% in years 1–3 post-project; increasing to 0.75% in year 4 and 1.0% in year 5)
⁵Assumes there is donor support to initially fund a project manager to coordinate day-to-day running of GMF business; once the GMF is raising substantial donations, a proportion can be used to fund this position (as recommended in the Resource Mobilization strategy [32])
⁶Assumes GMF active by year 3 post-project and advocacy efforts successful in raising USD 750,000 from match funding programme in year 3 + further USD 100,000 from corporate fundraising and private investments from diaspora, philanthropists; this fundraising continues with a 10% annual increase in years 4–5 post-project
⁷Donor contribution to match funding programme (one dollar for every dollar donated by private investors)
⁸See Additional file 4 for details of annualized donor investment costs

ISSN: 1475-2875