Fig. 3

Elimination probabilities after a single release of classic gene drive mosquitoes only in a moderate transmission (annual EIR = 30) regime. Elimination probabilities (computed as the fraction of 20 model realizations in which malaria prevalence reaches and remains at zero by the end of simulation year 7) over a range of transmission-blocking effectiveness (rc), drive efficiency (d), pre-existing population target site resistance frequency (rr0), and mortality-enhancing effector expression fitness cost (sne) values. Orange upward and downward-pointing orange triangles denote columns along which elimination probabilities increase and decrease with increasing fitness cost, respectively. Orange tildes denote columns along which elimination probabilities first increase and then decrease with increasing fitness cost