Fig. 4

Representative time series illustrating how elimination probabilities increase with increasing transmission-blocking effectiveness. Time series of malaria prevalence, total adult vector population, infectious vector fraction, total infectious adult vector population, and adult vector effector frequency over increasing values of transmission-blocking effectiveness (rc). Traces show the mean of 20 random seeds with the shaded areas denoting standard error. Elimination probabilities (e.p.) and number of days to elimination (e.d.) are denoted in the subplot titles. In the simulations corresponding to these time series, classic gene drive mosquitoes were released in a moderate transmission setting (annual EIR = 30) with non-rc parameters set equal to the following values: drive efficiency (d) = 1, pre-existing resistance (rr0) = 0.01, and fitness cost (sne) = 0.4. The higher the transmission-blocking effectiveness, the lower the frequency of vectors that are infectious among the total vector population and the greater the chance of locally eliminating malaria