Fig. 5

Representative time series illustrating how elimination probabilities increase with increasing drive efficiency. Time series of malaria prevalence, total adult vector population, infectious vector fraction, total infectious adult vector population, and adult vector effector frequency over increasing values of drive efficiency (d). Traces show the mean of 20 random seeds with the shaded areas denoting standard error. Elimination probabilities (e.p.) and number of days to elimination (e.d.) are denoted in the subplot titles. In the simulations corresponding to these time series, classic gene drive mosquitoes were released in a moderate transmission setting (annual EIR = 30) with non-d parameters set equal to the following values: transmission-blocking effectiveness (rc) = 0.9, pre-existing resistance (rr0) = 0.01, and fitness cost (sne) = 0.3. The higher the drive efficiency, the greater the peak effector frequency, the lower the infectious vector fraction, and the greater the chance of locally eliminating malaria