Fig. 6

Representative time series illustrating how elimination probabilities decrease with increasing pre-existing population target site resistance. Time series of malaria prevalence, total adult vector population, infectious vector fraction, total infectious adult vector population, and adult vector effector frequency over increasing values of pre-existing population target site resistance frequency (rr0). Traces show the mean of 20 random seeds with the shaded areas denoting standard error. Elimination probabilities (e.p.) and number of days to elimination (e.d.) are denoted in the subplot titles. In the simulations corresponding to these time series, classic gene drive mosquitoes were released in a moderate transmission setting (annual EIR = 30) with non-rr0 parameters set equal to the following values: drive efficiency (d) = 0.9, transmission-blocking effectiveness (rc) = 0.9, and fitness cost (sne) = 0.2. The higher the pre-existing resistance, the lower the peak effector frequency, the higher the infectious vector fraction, and the lower the chance of locally eliminating malaria