Table 1 People at Risk (PAR) for thermal suitability of transmission of malaria (P. falciparum or P. vivax) by Anopheles stephensi, under a baseline climate, and under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), across four global circulation model output projections for 2050 (BC: Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM1.1); CC: National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Climate System Model (CCSM4); HD: Hadley GCM HadGEM2-AO; HE: Hadley GCM HADGEM2-ES), paired with shared socioeconomic pathway projections of population (RCP 4.5 × SSP2; RCP 8.5 × SSP5), for 2050. These are given for Year-round transmission suitability (12 months), and for one or more months of suitability
RCP | GCM | Year-round | One or more months | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
P. falciparum | P. vivax | P. falciparum | P. vivax | ||
BASELINE | BASELINE | 2,978,746,847 | 2,097,002,867 | 7,449,067,483 | 7,383,343,414 |
RCP 4.5 | BC | 3,774,756,103 | 2,127,908,652 | 8,750,860,448 | 8,728,473,114 |
| Â | CC | 4,054,286,646 | 2,252,417,759 | 8,753,397,990 | 8,736,201,422 |
| Â | HD | 3,805,562,194 | 1,974,878,300 | 8,771,619,653 | 8,755,597,360 |
| Â | HE | 3,736,169,575 | 2,021,833,976 | 8,772,921,907 | 8,757,997,413 |
RCP 8.5 | BC | 3,166,706,402 | 1,743,224,294 | 8,177,804,060 | 8,165,124,757 |
| Â | CC | 3,307,469,096 | 1,813,969,917 | 8,177,578,312 | 8,163,138,249 |
| Â | HD | 3,361,036,908 | 1,732,882,405 | 8,181,652,270 | 8,170,347,061 |
| Â | HE | 3,164,609,570 | 1,530,848,172 | 8,185,991,009 | 8,180,851,173 |