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Table 3 Percent change in incidence in 2025 and 2030 relative to the BAU 2020 projected incidence

From: Application of mathematical modelling to inform national malaria intervention planning in Nigeria

Scenario

All age incidence percent change in 2025 relative to BAU 2020 (%)

U5 incidence percent change in 2025 relative to BAU 2020 (%)

All age incidence percent change in 2030 relative to BAU 2020 (%)

U5 incidence percent change in 2030 relative to BAU 2020 (%)

1

4.7 (3.8, 5.3)

0.9 (0.3, 1.5)

8.7 (8.4, 9.1)

3.0 (2.6, 3.3)

2

− 43.9 (− 43.3, − 44.3)

− 56.6 (− 56.2, − 56.8)

− 51.9 (− 51.4, − 52.4)

− 69.3 (− 69, − 69.6)

3

− 21.1 (− 20.6, − 21.8)

− 30 (− 29.4, − 30.5)

− 21.8 (− 21.3, − 22.3)

− 38.2 (− 38, − 38.4)

4

− 22.1 (− 21.6, − 22.6)

− 33.1 (− 32.7, − 33.4)

− 22.8 (− 22.2, − 23.5)

− 42.2 (− 41.8, − 42.6)

  1. Projected ranges based on five stochastic realizations