From: Application of mathematical modelling to inform national malaria intervention planning in Nigeria
Scenario | All age incidence percent change in 2025 relative to BAU 2020 (%) | U5 incidence percent change in 2025 relative to BAU 2020 (%) | All age incidence percent change in 2030 relative to BAU 2020 (%) | U5 incidence percent change in 2030 relative to BAU 2020 (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 4.7 (3.8, 5.3) | 0.9 (0.3, 1.5) | 8.7 (8.4, 9.1) | 3.0 (2.6, 3.3) |
2 | − 43.9 (− 43.3, − 44.3) | − 56.6 (− 56.2, − 56.8) | − 51.9 (− 51.4, − 52.4) | − 69.3 (− 69, − 69.6) |
3 | − 21.1 (− 20.6, − 21.8) | − 30 (− 29.4, − 30.5) | − 21.8 (− 21.3, − 22.3) | − 38.2 (− 38, − 38.4) |
4 | − 22.1 (− 21.6, − 22.6) | − 33.1 (− 32.7, − 33.4) | − 22.8 (− 22.2, − 23.5) | − 42.2 (− 41.8, − 42.6) |