Table 1 Model parameters and scenarios

Geography

Malaria setting simulation corresponds to

Not specified

20 States in Southern Nigeria

Population

Simulated total population

30,000 (closed)

30,000 (closed)

Birth cohorts

Number of population cohorts simulated from birth

12

12

Stochastic realizations

Number of random seeds for each scenario and birth cohort

5

5

Transmission intensity

annual EIR in infectious bites per person per annum (ibpa)

1, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128

Derived from simulated relationship between EIR and PfPR U5; EIR then estimated from PfPR U5 by rapid diagnostic test per State from NDHS 2018 [38])

Transmission seasonality

Monthly EIR

Derived from [39] (details in Additional file 1: A1.2)

Taken from [36], aggregated per State.

Clinical treatment coverage

% of clinical episodes effectively treated

60

Obtained from NDHS 2018 for each State [38]

Severe treatment coverage

% of severe episodes effectively treated

80

80

PMC coverage

% of population U2 receiving PMC doses at target ages per dose at random

80

Target: 80,

operational: informed by EPI coverage in Southern Nigeria for each State (NDHS 2018 [38])

PMC dosing schedule

Months of age at which child receives PMC

PMC-3: 2.5, 3.5, 9

PMC-4: 2.5, 3.5, 9, 12

PMC-5: 2.5, 3.5, 9, 12, 15

PMC-6: 2.5, 3.5, 6, 9, 12, 15

PMC-7: 2.5, 3.5, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18

PMC-3: 2.5, 3.5, 9

PMC-5: 2.5, 3.5, 9, 12, 15

PMC-7: 2.5, 3.5, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18

RTS,S coverage primary sequence

% of children receiving all 3 primary doses (combined at 9 months of age)

80

target: 0.8,

operational: informed by EPI coverage for each State (NDHS 2018 [38])

RTS,S booster coverage

% of children receiving booster out of those received full primary sequence

80

80

RTS,S schedule

Months of age at which child receives RTS,S dose

6, 7.5, 9 (initial 3-dose priming sequence) + 24 (booster)

6, 7.5, 9 (initial 3-dose priming sequence) + 24 (booster)