Figure 1

'Skeleton' diagram of model parameters. For each parameter or parameter group listed, the outcome (effective lifetime of a mass LLIN distribution, in years) depending on the parameter value is plotted on the horizontal axis. The effective lifetime was defined as the length of the period since mass distribution that the number of prevented episodes was above half the value for the year with maximum impact (i.e. the year with the minimum number of episodes), as compared to a scenario without any intervention. For each parameter, three values were chosen (listed in parenthesis after the parameter name), which represent roughly the lower, central, and upper values of the plausible parameter range. The central value is not necessarily the mean of the extreme values. These parameter values are listed in order of effect on the outcome; the first parameter value has the lowest associated outcome value, the last parameter has the highest. Crosses represent models; identical models are connected with dotted black vertical lines. Blue crosses indicate models with the central parameter value listed, green crosses indicate models with an extreme parameter value with an associated high outcome, and red crosses indicate models with an extreme parameter value with an associated low outcome. Red lines connect red and blue crosses, green lines connect blue and green crosses. In addition to results from models that vary only the parameter value in question (the other parameters taking the central value), outcomes for selected parameter combinations, often contingent on each other, where the selected parameters all have the values with the lower (red crosses), or higher (green crosses) associated outcomes are plotted.