Fig. 3

Age distribution of clinical and severe malaria cases predicted by the model compared with published data. Comparison of the age distribution of a clinical malaria cases and b severe malaria cases predicted by the model with age distribution data published by Carneiro et al. [14]. To allow for differences in transmission intensity definitions, the high transmission data from the model were compared with the moderate transmission data from Carneiro et al., and for clinical cases the moderate transmission data from the model were compared against an average calculated from the moderate and low transmission data from Carneiro et al. Severe cases were compared against the hospitalized cases from Carneiro et al. for which data are not available for low transmission settings without seasonality. The Y axis shows the percentage of events occurring in a particular month of age out of the total number of events during the observation period