Fig. 3

Estimated cumulative probability of finding larvae at a site based on the number of dip samples taken. Conditions are contrasted by warm water temperature (34 °C) + sunshine on the water (light grey) versus cool water (20 °C) + clouds (dark grey shading). Means (lines) and 95 % credible intervals (dashed lines) were generated from the posterior distribution of the mixture model predictions (Table 2) when all variables except the ones being modelled were held at their average value