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Table 3 Predicted hazard of P. falciparum infection during the malaria transmission season

From: Asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum carriage at the end of the dry season is associated with subsequent infection and clinical malaria in Eastern Gambia

Factors

Description (n)

% infections (n)

Univariate analysis

Multivariate analysis

HR [95% CI]

P value

HR [95% CI]

P value

Asymptomatic infection at the end of dry season

Yes (67)

68.7 (46)

3.388 [2.433–4.718]

< 0.0001

3.0 [2.149–4.190]

< 0.0001

No (613)

28.5 (175)

Ref.

 

Ref.

 

Sex

F (383)

31.3 (120)

1.155 [0.884–1.509]

0.29

  

M (295)

34.2 (101)

Ref.

   

Age groups (years)

< 5 (129)

15.5 (20)

Ref.

 

Ref.

 

5–14 (296)

33.8 (100)

2.621 [1.617–4.245]

< 0.0001

2.767 [1.704–4.493]

< 0.0001

≥ 15 (253)

39.9 (101)

2.917 [1.801–4.724]

< 0.0001

3.063 [1.888–4.970]

< 0.0001

Village of residence

J (107)

30.8 (33)

1.332 [0.748–2.373]

0.33

1.571 [0.870–2.837]

0.13

K (304)

25.7 (78)

1.05 [0.626–1.760]

0.85

1.084 [0.637–1.845]

0.76

N (73)

24.7 (18)

Ref.

   

P (196)

46.9 (92)

2.255 [1.355–3.751]

0.0017

2.375 [1.407–4.007]

0.0012

History of fever in the past week

Yes (21)

38.1 (8)

1.253 [0.608–2.582]

0.54

  

No (647)

31.7 (205)

Ref.

   

Anaemiaa

No (370)

32.7 (121)

Ref.

   

Mild (155)

29.0 (45)

0.861 [0.610–1.217]

0.40

  

Moderate (135)

33.3 (45)

1.051 [0.743–1.485]

0.78

  

Severe (10)

40.0 (4)

1.549 [0.567–4.235]

0.39

  

Fever at inclusion

Yes (7)

14.3 (1)

0.320 [0.044–2.310]

0.326

  

No (663)

32.3 (214)

Ref.

   
  1. In this analysis only individuals with known infection status during the follow-up period were included (data on active or passive diagnosis of infection at least once during the follow-up period)
  2. Significant estimates are bolded
  3. HR hazard ratio, CI confident interval, Ref. reference
  4. Only factors associated with infection in the univariate analysis (p < 0.05) were included in the multivariate analysis
  5. aAnaemia determined by age and sex according to the OMS 2011 report (OMS, 2011)