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Table 4 Regression analysis of factors associated with the Annual Parasite Incidence (standardized with annual blood examination rate)

From: Time series analysis of malaria cases to assess the impact of various interventions over the last three decades and forecasting malaria in India towards the 2030 elimination goals

FACTORS

Univariate

Multivariate (R2 = 0.37)

Beta coefficient (95% CI)

P value

Beta coefficient (95% CI)

P value

Demographics

    

Scheduled Tribe (%)

0.04 (0.03, 0.05)

 < 0.0001

0.02 (0.01, 0.03)

0.001

Literacy (%)

− 0.10 (− 0.13, − 0.08)

 < 0.0001

− 0.09 (− 0.012, − 0.07)

 < 0.0001

Health infrastructure

    

Proportion of vacant position of ASHA worker/000 pop

10.98 (8.65, 13.30)

 < 0.0001

5.75 (2.27, 9.24)

0.001

Proportion of vacant position of health worker*/000 pop

7.73 (6.84, 8.61)

 < 0.0001

8.95 (7.26, 10.63)

 < 0.0001

Number of Health Facilities (SC, PHC, CHC, SDH, DH)/sq km

− 3.87 (− 5.22, − 2.51)

 < 0.0001

− 1.46 (− 2.85, − 0.06)

0.04

Geography

    

Forest covered (%)

0.04 (0.03, 0.05)

 < 0.0001

0.02 (0.01, 0.03)

 < 0.0001

% of Hilly Districts

0.01 (0.05, 0.01)

 < 0.0001

0.02 (0.02, 0.03)

 < 0.0001

Climate

    

Annual Rainfall mm

0.0004 (0.0001, 0.0007)

0.002

0.0005 (0.0003, 0.0008)

 < 0.0001

Constant

  

5.54 (3.88, 7.20)

 < 0.0001