Age-shifting in malaria incidence as a result of induced immunological deficit: a simulation study
© Pemberton-Ross et al. 2015
Received: 11 March 2015
Accepted: 10 July 2015
Published: 25 July 2015
Effective population-level interventions against Plasmodium falciparum malaria lead to age-shifts, delayed morbidity or rebounds in morbidity and mortality whenever they are deployed in ways that do not permanently interrupt transmission. When long-term intervention programmes target specific age-groups of human hosts, the age-specific morbidity rates ultimately adjust to new steady-states, but it is very difficult to study these rates and the temporal dynamics leading up to them empirically because the changes occur over very long time periods. This study investigates the age and magnitude of age- and time- shifting of incidence induced by either pre-erythrocytic vaccination (PEV) programmes or seasonal malaria chemo-prevention (SMC), using an ensemble of individual-based stochastic simulation models of P. falciparum dynamics. The models made various assumptions about immunity decay, transmission heterogeneity and were parameterized with data on both age-specific infection and disease incidence at different levels of exposure, on the durations of different stages of the parasite life-cycle and on human demography. Effects of transmission intensity, and of levels of access to malaria treatment were considered. While both PEV and SMC programmes are predicted to have overall strongly positive health effects, a shift of morbidity into older children is predicted to be induced by either programme if transmission levels remain static and not reduced by other interventions. Predicted shifting of burden continue into the second decade of the programme. Even if long-term surveillance is maintained it will be difficult to avoid mis-attribution of such long-term changes in age-specific morbidity patterns to other factors. Conversely, short-lived transient changes in incidence measured soon after introduction of a new intervention may give over-positive views of future impacts. Complementary intervention strategies could be designed to specifically protect those age-groups at risk from burden shift.
KeywordsMalaria Epidemiology Vaccines Chemoprevention Age shift
Countries and organizations aiming to reduce the public-health burden of malaria have at their disposal an increasing number of options for intervention. These cover a wide range of modes of action, potential strategies of deployment and cost, making comprehensive analysis of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness challenging. It is not possible to cover all intervention combinations of interest by field trials, thus modeling and simulation can be useful to interpolate, optimize intervention packages and explore hypotheses .
This is particularly the case for analyses of the long-term effects of infection blocking interventions such as long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) [2–4] or pre-erythrocytic vaccines (PEV) [5–7], but also to chemotherapy and prophylaxis strategies including test and treat , mass drug administration (MDA)  or seasonal malaria chemo-prevention (SMC; formerly referred to as Intermittent Preventive Treatment in children or IPTc) . These interventions drive complex interplay of exposure and delay of natural immunity that may have counter-intuitive effects on subsequent transmission and burden [10, 11]. The advantages of infection blocking interventions are clear; the immediate burden associated with the infection is averted, and at the same time onward transmission of the parasite can be prevented with high enough coverage of the whole population, and thus not just those receiving the intervention may be protected .
Such interventions directly reduce immune challenge to individuals using the interventions. MDA strategies typically stipulate age-stratified cohorts for treatment, which even in the ideal scenario of a programme with perfect coverage and compliance will only cover a given individual for the length of time they remain in the designated age band . Current strategies for interventions often target children under five years of age, leaving them without protection at older ages. Excess disease incidence resulting from the immunological opportunity cost will, therefore, be expected in age groups older than those treated if everything else remains static. In addition, reductions in transmission either to intervened and non-intervened individuals also reduce immune challenge and hence acquisition of natural immunity and also potentially allows decay of pre-existing immunity. This does not argue against interventions that delay immunity acquisition, but highlights the additional need to continue or increase coverage interventions for these individuals.
Averting infection and disease in one age group is thus likely to be accompanied by an excess of episodes in older age groups of the same individuals: referred to as an age-shift. Such age-shifts of clinical disease are a result of changes in exposure and delay of blood-stage malaria infection immunity acquisition, and are a general characteristic of infectious disease epidemiology , especially where (as with malaria) there is typically endemic stability  rather than epidemics. There have consequently been recurrent suggestions that interventions blocking malaria infection may lead to increases in clinical and severe disease burden in older individuals or at later time points [16–20]. While age-shifts, delays or rebounds are clearly predicted by many theoretical models of malaria dynamics [15, 21], direct measurement of these effects is generally impractical because of the short duration of most field trials, such as those used to establish the efficacy of ITNs [22–24] or of the RTS,S PEV [25, 26]. Where randomization is maintained for long enough, as in recent Phase II RTS,S trials [27, 28], a conventionally limited empirical analysis (i.e., one without accompanying serological data) cannot distinguish such shifts from the mechanistically distinct explanation of age- or time-dependence in the efficacy of the intervention. When a single population is followed up over a long period and effectiveness of interventions compared over time, (e.g. ) there is likely to be confusion about whether decreases in effect size are due to age-shifts and delayed morbidity or to resistance or insensitivity to the intervention (e.g. ).
Field studies of age- and exposure-dependent prevalence and the incidence of disease [31–33] can be used to indicate how the steady-state patterns will be modified by reductions in malaria transmission. In endemic areas where repeated infection occurs, naturally immunity is acquired which reduces the frequency of clinical episodes but does not reach the level of complete resistance. This partial immunity acts to reduce the parasite load in infected individuals and is a major determinant of malaria incidence patterns, providing some protection against severe morbidity and mortality in older children and adults, particularly in hyper- and holo-endemic areas . The exact mechanisms of acquisition and decay of this immunity are poorly understood but the age- and exposure-relationships in the absence of intervention are well known. While protection against severe disease is developed after even small numbers of infectious mosquito bites , recurrent infections are needed for the host to become clinically immune, and even lifelong exposure does not lead to solid protection against infection. This has the consequence that areas with higher transmission intensities have lower risk of severe malaria after the first few years of life [36–38], and an earlier and narrower age-range of susceptibility to all disease .
The timing of age-shifts, delays, or rebounds depend on the transient dynamics of the system which in turn depend on the durations of the different stages of the parasite life-cycle and the dynamics of human demography . These factors together determine how population immunity changes over time, and prediction of age-shifts needs to take them all into account. Field studies generally cannot directly estimate these effects, but by using simulation models which account for the complex dynamics of malaria transmission, immunity and morbidity that are parameterized with field data these effects and hypotheses can be explored. The magnitude of age-shifts induced by PEV and MDA have been simulated using an ensemble of open-source individual-based stochastic models of P. falciparum dynamics (OpenMalaria) that have been fitted to extensive data on age- and exposure-patterns of prevalence and disease [40, 41]. Using this framework we simulate the effect of the introduction of PEV and SMC programmes, using standard deployment strategies into endemic settings. We do this to look at predictions as a result of examples of induced immunological deficit. We assume transmission remains static for the period of follow-up, noting that in field studies this is likely not to be the case and thus the predicted magnitude of age-shifting is likely to be larger than in reality if there is increasing coverage of LLINs and access to treatment seen in recent years. Quantities of epidemiological interest were tracked as the programmes continued over a timespan of 20 years. The results are compared to outcomes in a control population that does not receive either intervention.
OpenMalaria comprises an ensemble of discrete-time individual-based models of malaria in humans [40, 41] linked to population models of malaria in mosquitoes , and a dynamic model of human demography . At each time-point the simulations contain a representation of the parasite densities of each P. falciparum infection in each human in the model, as well as the infectiousness to mosquitoes and morbidity status. The mosquito populations are classified into uninfected, infected and infectious vectors. Immunity is modelled in OpenMalaria via effects on parasite densities, which are reduced according to that individual’s history of infections, taking into account the previous total cumulative parasite load exposure and number of infection events. Several models in the ensemble allow for immunity decay. The details of these models and the fitting of the model parameters to data are outlined in [40, 41].
The OpenMalaria framework includes model components of not just transmission dynamics, human infection, immunity acquisition and decay, the life cycles of the mosquito and the malaria parasite, but also interventions aimed at different parts of the malaria life-cycle such as LLINs and the availability and efficacy of drugs and the health system. This allows for a wide range of malaria interventions to be simulated and investigated and impact on disease burden and transmission dynamics estimated. Malaria interventions are parameterized as much as possible using variables which correspond to real-world observables, to allowing one to simulate the effect of measurable changes in the local transmission environment. In particular, the ability to model vaccines and mass drug programmes at the population level and the pharmacokinetic (PK) profile at the individual level have made this investigations of both PEV and SMC feasible.
The ensemble of simulation models was previously described in detail by . The present work uses a subset of six of the model variants listed in Table 2 of that . The model variants are discrete time micro-simulations of malaria in humans, originally developed for modeling of malaria vaccines .
Models for case-management , PEV  and for clinical outcomes and mortality are described by [46, 47]. Each of these papers gives details of the rationale for the model structure. Model parameterisation is described by . Implementation of these models is described at: https://github.com/SwissTPH/openmalaria/wiki.
Levels simulated for PEV and SMC
(1) R0000 base model
(2) R0068 heterogeneity in transmission: within-host variability
(3) R0131 immunity decay in effective cumulative exposure
(4) R0132 immunity decay in immune proxies
(5) R0133 immunity decay in both immune proxies & effective cumulative exposure
(6) R0670 heterogeneity in susceptibility to co-morbidity
Age-group upper bounds (years)
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 99
Yearly surveys for 20 years
Seasonal, West Africa
EIR (infectious bites per person per year)
0.1a, 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 64, 256
Uncomplicated case managementb (%)
0, 5, 40
Inpatient care for severe casesc (%)
Vaccination coverage (%)
6, 10, 14 weeks old
All children aged between 3–59 months
Initial efficacy against infection (%)
Weibull decay shape parameter (k)
1 (exponential decay)
3.300 (slow decay, followed by quick decay)
Number of simulations
To simulate both PEV and SMC simulations, six model variants from the OpenMalaria repertoire  (Penny MA, Galactionova K, Tarantino M, Tanner M, Smith TA: The public health impact of malaria vaccine RTS,S in malaria endemic Africa: country-specific predictions using 18 month follow-up Phase III data and simulation models. BMC Medicine, forthcoming) were employed, with each variant including the same sub-model for pathogenesis and case-management, but differing by assumptions concerning immunity decay or heterogeneity in transmission or co-morbidity. Each of these has been parameterized by fitting to observed relationships between seasonal patterns of EIR and a range of outcomes, including parasite prevalence and morbidity rates. This ensemble of models is used to provide insight into the scale of structural model error in the predictions. For each model variant a range of different EIRs and levels access to effective care was simulated, Table 1. The inclusion of effects of curative malaria treatment is a crucial part of our simulations. Effective treatment which clears the blood stage of the malaria parasite reduces the length of a given malaria episode, and the chance of recurrences, severe sequelae and death. This has downstream impacts on the future immunity state and infectiousness of individuals, and the population-wide prevalence and transmission dynamics which feedback in a complex nonlinear manner. In this study, it was assumed that each individual had a \(14.5\%\) probability of receiving blood-stage clearance of the malaria parasite in any two week period with illness (intended to correspond to the situation in some areas of Senegal ). This summary probability thus takes into account access to treatment, treatment adherence and compliance and any drug resistance.
Model averaging was used to provide a representative picture of the typical observed dynamics over the a range of values for each of the factor levels simulated listed in Table 1, as in Penny MA, Galactionova K, Tarantino M, Tanner M, Smith TA (The public health impact of malaria vaccine RTS,S in malaria endemic Africa: country-specific predictions using 18 month follow-up Phase III data and simulation models. BMC Medicine, forthcoming). The PEV simulations were weighted to simulate access to care, vaccination coverage and transmission profiles comparable to those found in areas in West Africa. The weights used for transmission level were computed based on the prevalence rasters in , which were transformed into EIR values using the relationship in Penny MA, Maire N, Bever C, Pemberton-Ross P, Briët OJT, Smith DL, et al. (Distributions of malaria exposure in endemic countries in Africa considering country levels of effective treatment, submitted) and the estimated level of access to effective care. This level was scaled from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) at admin-1 level . The predictions of the SMC programme in the population are derived as weighted averages of outputs as detailed in Penny MA, Galactionova K, Tarantino M, Tanner M, Smith TA (The public health impact of malaria vaccine RTS,S in malaria endemic Africa: country-specific predictions using 18 month follow-up Phase III data and simulation models. BMC Medicine, forthcoming).
Excess severe disease and deaths are also predicted to occur earlier than excess uncomplicated disease, Figure 9, in some cases after little more than half the time after the start of the programme. For all episode severities, the first onset of excess cases happens sooner at high exposure, measured here by the entomological inoculation rate (EIR). At very low exposure (EIR = 1 infective bite per person per annum), the first onset of excess uncomplicated disease can be as late as 10 years after the start of the programme.
Age-shifting of disease, delayed morbidity or rebounds in morbidity and mortality will generally occur when partially effective malaria interventions are deployed in ways that do not permanently interrupt transmission. Such age-shifts have been observed in previous field studies of chemoprophylaxis  and discussed at length in historical literature, but such effects will be hard to detect in field trials if follow-up is not long enough or background transmission decreases during trials. It is conjectured that all models of malaria dynamics that capture age patterns of transmission and disease incidence relationships for P. falciparum will predict these effects of age-shifting for any transmission reducing intervention that prevent infections in individuals, especially when targeted to young ages. The two malaria interventions considered here, PEV and SMC, covered different age groups for implementation, with both preventing new infections in individuals for varying lengths of time and in the case of SMC cleared infections when given. Both interventions are predicted to result in age-shifting of disease, with some excess clinical cases in older ages once the intervention no longer protects. Despite this age-shifting of disease, an overall positive benefit is predicted, with the number of clinical cases averted larger than any possible excess in older ages. This is in part due to the interventions targeting young ages where disease burden is higher. In simulations of naive and near naive individuals in settings with low malaria prevalence, the OpenMalaria models predict recurrent illness from single infections; they incorporate dynamic effects of treatment; and they reproduce the age patterns of uncomplicated episodes in a study  in which there is a strong ’cross-over’ effect in the sense that in older age groups, clinical incidence in the lower transmission site was higher than at higher exposure. In the models, these patterns are partly driven by the high treatment rates in these villages, a situation somewhat similar to an SMC programme. Other models might reproduce these effects to lesser extents if they are parameterised using different constraints and data .
Three different sets of scenarios leading to rebounds or age-shifts can be distinguished: (a) when intervention deployment over the whole population is maintained long-term at a constant level, there is typically an initial phase during which the burden reduction is maximal, followed by readjustment to a new steady-state during which there may be a temporary increases of morbidity rates above the steady-state levels. This pattern is clearly seen in OpenMalaria analyses of rebounds in long-term LLIN programmes . (b) Discontinuation of programmes, such as single-round LLIN distributions , or weakening or cessation of sets of repeated programmes , is followed ultimately by a return to the original steady-state (assuming exogenous factors remain the same). The transient dynamics that may involve temporary increases of morbidity rates above the initial level. Situation (c), analysed in this paper, occurs when the intervention is provided only to a specific age range, but is maintained long-term. This shares some of the characteristics of (a) in that it potentially leads to a new steady state if the interventions reduce transmission, but is similar to (b), in that since the intervention is only applied to each individual for a finite period so each individual emerges from the protected age range with diminished immune readiness relative to non-intervened individuals and that expected for a given environment’s intrinsic potential for malaria. So the new steady state entails an age-shift in the pattern of disease. The timing of the effects for PEV and SMC are remarkably similar, though the ages affected are very different.
A general characteristic of all of these phenomena is that they are evident much sooner in high transmission settings, and that the largest burden shifts are also seen at the highest transmission levels. In such settings, one factor influencing burden shift to the 4–10 month age group is maternal immunity, as this is the age at which the protection conferred by transplacental maternal antibodies is expected to wane. This has the potential to leave this age group particularly vulnerable, as both maternal and clinical immunity diminish without the interim immune challenge required to produce a replacement protection . However, this is likely to be an important factor only in very high transmission settings where a substantial amount of exposure is experienced in this short age-window.
In low-transmission settings, without increasing coverage of transmission reducing interventions, resurgence of disease may be distributed over a very long period after programme start, predicted to extend at least into the second decade. This makes it unlikely that this will be detected in the majority of controlled field trials of MDA or vaccination, which have relatively short follow-up periods. Many other changes in both malaria interventions and in environmental drivers of transmission are likely over such time-scales, so even if long-term surveillance is maintained it will be difficult to avoid mis-attribution of such long-term changes in age-specific morbidity patterns to other factors. Conversely, short-lived transient changes in incidence measured soon after introduction of a new intervention may give misleading views of future impacts . An immediate drop in incidence in one age group may be interpreted as evidence of success, but this should always be judged in the context of longer time shifts in incidence in this and other age groups.
A key determinant of these long-term dynamics is the very slow decay of population immunity when the challenge is reduced. The analysis suggests that the immunological “opportunity cost” that is paid during the period in which new infections are blocked, mainly results from the recruitment of unexposed infants into the population, not from loss of immunological memory in previously exposed cohorts. While there is field evidence that treating asymptomatic infections increases subsequent susceptibility in the short-term [56–58], significant immunity persists for a very long time . Only by assuming very slow decay of immunity (or none at all) could the OpenMalaria models be fitted to the available data [41, 43]. It follows that the timing and extent of age-shifts is sensitive to the birth-rate and age-distribution of the human population, and that models need to use realistic age-distributions if they are to give reliable indications of the extent of age-shifts.
The dynamics of age-shifts also depend on the slow build-up of natural immunity under parasitological challenge. An important feature of this is an increase in the force of infection with age for the first few years of life . The OpenMalaria models capture this by assuming natural exposure is a function of body size, reflecting increasing biting by mosquitoes on larger hosts [61, 62] Figure 10 (figure taken from ). This is implemented as an age-dependent scaling factor, which expresses the number of bites received as a child as a fraction of the bites received by a fully-grown adult, proportional to the ratio in surface areas Figure 11 . The consequent effect of child growth on exposure magnifies the age-shifting effect because when the exogenous protection of the treated cohort is lost at a time when their increased size leaves them more vulnerable than younger children.
Even sustained interventions which include more age-groups over longer periods will not necessarily entirely prevent age-shifting of disease , but there may be a benefit to the use of complementary interventions targeted specifically to those age-groups at risk of burden shift. This could take the form of further infection-blocking interventions such as increasing usage of LLINs in those age groups (with LLINS also reducing transmission by their direct effects on mosquitos) and PEV booster programmes, particularly if longer half-life PEVs become available. Further simulation studies would be useful to help optimise design of such mitigation strategies and investigate cost-effectiveness. The simulation predictions that, SMC averts clinical cases in the age group into which PEV induces excess cases suggests that SMC may be an appropriate strategy for mitigating the age shifts induced by a PEV, and will be a subject of future work. Modelling is useful to establish the optimal timing, cohorts and administration regimes for such combination programmes and would additionally provide cost-effectiveness estimates of intended programmes to national malaria control programs for budget impact analysis.
The age-patterns of infection and disease in the models were fitted to the data of a number of field studies (see Additional file 1), and the results are thus heavily driven by data, rather than by somewhat uncertain assumptions about pathogenesis and immunity. Empirical studies that have investigated age shifts of malaria interventions have found results similar to our simulations [20, 64]. However, generalization from models fitted to a limited set of locations is inevitably associated with uncertainties, especially since the age patterns of disease must depend on local factors such as patterns of co-morbidity. The greatest uncertainties attach to the assumptions about the models of intervention effects, especially of SMC, where the assumptions about the relationship between coverage and effective protection remain untested.
Conceived and designed the experiments: PP, MP. Performed the simulations: PP, MP. Performed the pharmacodynamic analysis: KK, EMH. Analyzed the data: PP, MP. Wrote paper: PP, TS, MP. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
The authors would like to thank Olivier Briët for helpful discussions, and Diggory Hardy and the sciCORE team at Universität Basel for assistance with computing infrastructure. Calculations were performed at sciCORE (http://scicore.unibas.ch/) scientific computing core facility at University of Basel.
Compliance with ethical guidelines
Competing interests This work was funded by Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation project number 1032350 and PATH-Malaria Vaccine Initiative (MVI). No funding bodies had any role in the study design, data analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.
- Smith T, Maire N, Ross A, Penny M, Chitnis N, Schapira A et al (2008) Towards a comprehensive simulation model of malaria epidemiology and control. Parasitology 135(13):1507–1516PubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Stuckey EM, Stevenson J, Galactionova K, Baidjoe AY, Bousema T, Odongo W et al (2014) Modeling the cost effectiveness of malaria control interventions in the highlands of Western kenya. PLoS One 9(10):e107700PubMed CentralPubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Briet OJ, Penny MA (2013) Repeated mass distributions and continuous distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets: modelling sustainability of health benefits from mosquito nets, depending on case management. Malar J 12:401PubMed CentralPubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Briet OJ, Chitnis N (2013) Effects of changing mosquito host searching behaviour on the cost effectiveness of a mass distribution of long-lasting, insecticidal nets: a modelling study. Malar J 12:215PubMed CentralPubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Penny MA, Maire N, Studer A, Schapira A, Smith TA (2008) What should vaccine developers ask? Simulation of the effectiveness of malaria vaccines. PLoS One 3(9):e3193PubMed CentralPubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- White M, Griffin J, Ghani A (2013) The design and statistical power of treatment re-infection studies of the association between pre-erythrocytic immunity and infection with Plasmodium falciparum. Malar J 12(1):278PubMed CentralPubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Brooks A, Briet OJ, Hardy D, Steketee R, Smith TA (2012) Simulated impact of RTS, S/AS01 vaccination programs in the context of changing malaria transmission. PLoS One 7(3):e32587PubMed CentralPubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Crowell V, Briet OJ, Hardy D, Chitnis N, Maire N, Di PA et al (2013) Modelling the cost-effectiveness of mass screening and treatment for reducing Plasmodium falciparum malaria burden. Malar J 12:4PubMed CentralPubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Ross A, Maire N, Sicuri E, Smith T, Conteh L (2011) Determinants of the cost-effectiveness of intermittent preventive treatment for malaria in infants and children. PLoS One 6(4):e18391PubMed CentralPubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Staszewski V, Reece SE, O’Donnell AJ, Cunningham EJA (2012) Drug treatment of malaria infections can reduce levels of protection transferred to offspring via maternal immunity. Proc R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 279(1737):2487–2496View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Good MF, Stanisic D, Xu H, Elliott S, Wykes M (2004) The immunological challenge to developing a vaccine to the blood stages of malaria parasites. Immunol Rev 201(1):254–267PubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- McKenzie FE, Baird JK, Beier JC, Altaf ALAL, Bossert WH (2002) A biologic basis for integrated malaria control. Am J Trop Med Hyg 67:571–577PubMed CentralPubMedGoogle Scholar
- Poirot E, Skarbinski J, Sinclair D, Kachur SP, Slutsker L, Hwang J (2013) Mass drug administration for malaria. Cochrane Database Syst Rev 12:1–160Google Scholar
- Woolhouse ME (1998) Patterns in parasite epidemiology: the peak shift. Parasitol Today 14:428–434PubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Coleman PG, Perry BD, Woolhouse ME (2001) Endemic stability—a veterinary idea applied to human public health. Lancet 357(9264):1284–1286PubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Snow R, Marsh K (2002) The consequences of reducing transmission of Plasmodium falciparum in Africa. Adv Parasitol 52:235–264PubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Snow R, Marsh K (1995) Will reducing Plasmodium falciparum transmission alter malaria mortality among African children? Parasitol Today 11(5):188–190View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Coleman PG, Goodman CA, Mills A (1999) Rebound mortality and the cost-effectiveness of malaria control: potential impact of increased mortality in late childhood following the introduction of insecticide treated nets. Trop Med Int Health 4(3):175–186PubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Ghani AC, Sutherland CJ, Riley EM, Drakeley CJ, Griffin JT, Gosling RD et al (2009) Loss of population levels of immunity to malaria as a result of exposure-reducing interventions: consequences for interpretation of disease trends. PLoS One 4(2):e4383–e4383PubMed CentralPubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Aponte JJ, Menendez C, Schellenberg D, Kahigwa E, Mshinda H, Vountasou P et al (2007) Age Interactions in the development of naturally acquired immunity to Plasmodium falciparum and its clinical presentation. PLoS Med 4(7):e242PubMed CentralPubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Gupta S, Hill AV, Kwiatkowski D, Greenwood AM, Greenwood BM, Day KP (1994) Parasite virulence and disease patterns in Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 91(9):3715–3719PubMed CentralPubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Binka F, Kubaje A, Adjuik M, Williams LA, Lengeler C, Maude G et al (1996) Impact of permethrin impregnated bednets on child mortality in Kassena-Nankana district, Ghana: a randomized controlled trial. Trop Med Int Health 1(2):147–154PubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Nevill C, Some ES, Mung’ala V, Mutemi W, New L, Marsh K et al (1996) Insecticide-treated bednets reduce mortality and severe morbidity from malaria among children on the Kenyan coast. Trop Med Int Health 1(2):139–146PubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Phillips-Howard P, Nahlen B, Kolczak MS, Hightower AW, ter Kuile F, Alaii JA et al (2003) Efficacy of permethrin-treated bed nets in the prevention of mortality in young children in an area of high perennial malaria transmission in western Kenya. Am J Trop Med Hyg 68(Suppl. 4):23–29PubMedGoogle Scholar
- Johns B, Baltussen R (2004) Accounting for the cost of scaling-up health interventions. Health Econ 13(11):1117–1124PubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Abdulla S, Salim N, Machera F, Kamata R, Juma O, Shomari M et al (2013) Randomized, controlled trial of the long term safety, immunogenicity and efficacy of RTS, S/AS02D malaria vaccine in infants living in a malaria-endemic region. MalarJ 12:11View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Olotu A, Fegan G, Wambua J, Nyangweso G, Awuondo KO, Leach A et al (2013) Four-year efficacy of RTS, S/AS01E and its interaction with malaria exposure. N Engl J Med 368(12):1111–1120PubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Sacarlal J, Aide P, Aponte JJ, Renom M, Leach A, Mandomando I et al (2009) Long-term safety and efficacy of the RTS, S/AS02A malaria vaccine in Mozambican children. J Infect Dis 200(3):329–336PubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Trape JF, Tall A, Diagne N, Ndiath O, Ly AB, Faye J et al (2011) Malaria morbidity and pyrethroid resistance after the introduction of insecticide-treated bednets and artemisinin-based combination therapies: a longitudinal study. Lancet Infect Dis. 11(12):925–932PubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Meyer CG, Ehrhardt S (2012) Are insecticide treated bednets failing? Lancet Infect Dis 12(7):513–514PubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Trape JF, Rogier C (1996) Combating malaria morbidity and mortality by reducing transmission. Parasitol Today 12(6):236–240PubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Snow R, Omumbo J, Lowe B, Molyneux CS, Obiero JO, Palmer A et al (1997) Relation between severe malaria morbidity in children and level of Plasmodium falciparum transmission in Africa [see comments]. Lancet 349(9066):1650–1654PubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Carneiro I, Roca-Feltrer A, Griffin JT, Smith L, Tanner M, Schellenberg JA et al (2010) Age-patterns of malaria vary with severity, transmission intensity and seasonality in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and pooled analysis. PLoS One 5(2):e8988PubMed CentralPubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Doolan DL, Dobano C, Baird JK (2009) Acquired immunity to malaria. Clin Microbiol Rev 22(1):13–36PubMed CentralPubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Gupta S, Snow R, Donnelly CA, Marsh K, Newbold C (1999) Immunity to non-cerebral severe malaria is acquired after one or two infections. Nat Med 5(3):340–343PubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Mbogo CN, Snow R, Khamala CP, Kabiru EW, Ouma J, Githure JI et al (1995) Relationships between Plasmodium falciparum transmission by vector populations and the incidence of severe disease at nine sites on the Kenyan coast. Am J Trop Med Hyg 52(3):201–206PubMedGoogle Scholar
- McElroy PD, Beier JC, Oster CN, Onyango FK, Oloo AJ, Lin X et al (1997) Dose- and time-dependent relations between infective Anopheles inoculation and outcomes of Plasmodium falciparum parasitemia among children in western Kenya. Am J Epidemiol 145(10):945–956PubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- McElroy PD, Beier JC, Oster CN, Beadle C, Sherwood JA, Oloo AJ et al (1994) Predicting outcome in malaria: correlation between rate of exposure to infected mosquitoes and level of Plasmodium falciparum parasitemia. Am J Trop Med Hyg 51(5):523–532PubMedGoogle Scholar
- Milstien J, Cardenas V, Cheyne J, Brooks A (2010) WHO policy development processes for a new vaccine: case study of malaria vaccines. Malar J 9:182PubMed CentralPubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Smith T, Killeen GF, Maire N, Ross A, Molineaux L, Tediosi F et al (2006) Mathematical modeling of the impact of malaria vaccines on the clinical epidemiology and natural history of Plasmodium falciparum malaria: Overview. Am J Trop Med Hyg 75(2 Suppl):1–10PubMedGoogle Scholar
- Smith T, Ross A, Maire N, Chitnis N, Studer A, Hardy D et al (2012) Ensemble modeling of the likely public health impact of a pre-erythrocytic malaria vaccine. PLoS Med 9(1):e1001157PubMed CentralPubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Chitnis N, Hardy D, Smith T (2012) A periodically-forced mathematical model for the seasonal dynamics of malaria in mosquitoes. Bull Math Biol 74:1098–1124PubMed CentralPubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Maire N, Smith T, Ross A, Owusu-Agyei S, Dietz K, Molineaux L (2006) A model for natural immunity to asexual blood stages of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in endemic areas. Am J Trop Med Hyg 75(2 Suppl):19–31PubMedGoogle Scholar
- Tediosi F, Maire N, Smith T, Hutton G, Utzinger J, Ross A et al (2006) An approach to model the costs and effects of case management of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in sub-saharan Africa. Am J Trop Med Hyg 75(2 Suppl):90–103PubMedGoogle Scholar
- Maire N, Aponte JJ, Ross A, Thompson R, Alonso P, Utzinger J et al (2006) Modeling a field trial of the RTS, S/AS02A malaria vaccine. Am J Trop Med Hyg 75(2 Suppl):104–110PubMedGoogle Scholar
- Smith T, Ross A, Maire N, Rogier C, Trape JF, Molineaux L (2006) An epidemiologic model of the incidence of acute illness in Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Am J Trop Med Hyg 75(2 Suppl):56–62PubMedGoogle Scholar
- Ross A, Maire N, Molineaux L, Smith T (2006) An epidemiologic model of severe morbidity and mortality caused by Plasmodium falciparum. Am J Trop Med Hyg 75(2 Suppl):63–73PubMedGoogle Scholar
- Galactionova K, Tediosi F, de Savigny D, Smith T, Tanner M (2014) Effective coverage and systems effectiveness for malaria case management in Sub-Saharan African countries. PLoS One 10(5):e0127818View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- World Health Organization (2013) Seasonal malaria chemoprevention with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine in children: a field guide. http://www.who.int/malaria/publications/atoz/9789241504737/en/. Accessed 9 Jan 2015
- Hong KB. Pharmacological modelling of the efficacy and safety of fixed-dose versus non-fixed dose combinations of the antimalarial drug artesunate-amodiaquine. Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Master of Tropical and Infectious Diseases. 2014Google Scholar
- Htay MNN. Pharmacological modelling of intermittent preventative treatment in pregnancy with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine. Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Master of Tropical and Infectious Diseases. 2014Google Scholar
- Hietala S, Bhattarai A, Msellem M, Röshammar D, Ali A, Strömberg J (2007) Population pharmacokinetics of amodiaquine and desethylamodiaquine in pediatric patients with uncomplicated falciparum malaria. J Pharmacokinet Pharmacodyn 34(5):669–686PubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Gatton ML, Martin LB, Cheng Q (2004) Evolution of resistance to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine in Plasmodium falciparum. Antimicrob Agents Chemother 48(6):2116–2123PubMed CentralPubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Gething PW, Patil AP, Smith DL, Guerra CA, Elyazar IR, Johnston GL et al (2011) A new world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2010. Malar J 10(1):378PubMed CentralPubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Cohen J, Smith D, Cotter C, Ward A, Yamey G, Sabot O et al (2012) Malaria resurgence: a systematic review and assessment of its causes. Malar J 11(1):122–122PubMed CentralPubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Greenwood BM, David PH, Otoo-Forbes LN, Allen SJ, Alonso PL, Armstrong-Schellenberg JR et al (1995) Mortality and morbidity from malaria after stopping malaria chemoprophylaxis. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 89(6):629–633PubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Henning L, Schellenberg D, Smith T, Henning D, Alonso P, Tanner M et al (2004) A prospective study of Plasmodium falciparum multiplicity of infection and morbidity in Tanzanian children. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 98:687–694PubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Tiono AB, Guelbeogo MW, Sagnon NF, Nebie I, Sirima SB, Mukhopadhyay A et al (2013) Dynamics of malaria transmission and susceptibility to clinical malaria episodes following treatment of Plasmodium falciparum asymptomatic carriers: results of a cluster-randomized study of community-wide screening and treatment, and a parallel entomology study. BMC Infect Dis 13:535PubMed CentralPubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Deloron P, Chougnet C (1992) Is immunity to malaria really short-lived? Parasitol Today 8(11):375–378PubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Felger I, Maire M, Bretscher MT, Falk N, Tiaden A, Sama W et al (2012) The dynamics of natural Plasmodium falciparum infections. PLoS One 7(9):e45542PubMed CentralPubMedView ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Port GR, Boreham PFL, Bryan JH (1980) The relationship of host size to feeding by mosquitos of the Anopheles gambiae giles complex (Diptera, Culicidae). Bull Entomol Res 70(1):133–144View ArticleGoogle Scholar
- Carnevale P, Frezil JL, Bosseno MF, Lepont F, Lancien J (1978) Study of agressivity of Anopheles gambiae A in relation to age and sex of human subjects. Bull WHO 56(1):147–154PubMed CentralPubMedGoogle Scholar
- Smith T, Maire N, Dietz K, Killeen GF, Vounatsou P, Molineaux L et al (2006) Relationships between the entomological inoculation rate and the force of infection for Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Am J Trop Med Hyg 75(Suppl 2):11–18PubMedGoogle Scholar
- O’Meara WP, Mwangi TW, Williams TN, McKenzie FE, Snow RW, Marsh K (2008) Relationship between exposure, clinical malaria, and age in an area of changing transmission intensity. Am J Trop Med Hyg 79(2):185–191PubMed CentralPubMedGoogle Scholar