Development of a new version of the Liverpool Malaria Model. II. Calibration and validation for West Africa

Malaria Journal

Table 2 Criteria in terms of the evaluation of LMM simulations

#	name	description	n_obs	points	var
1	overlap	Any observation is included in the simulated range	≥1	+1	all variables
2	enclosure	Every observation is included in the simulated range	≥2	+1	all variables
3	median enclosure	The observed median is included in the simulated range	≥3	+1	HBR _a EIR _a CSPR _a Seas MSeas PR _a PR _min,a PR _max,a
4	median quartile enclosure	The observed median is located within the lower and upper quartile of the simulations	≥5	+1	HBR _a EIR _a CSPR _a Seas MSeas PR _a PR _min,a PR _max,a
5	penalty	The simulations exceed the one and a half time maximum of all field observations	≥1	-5	HBR _a EIR _a
6	frequency	I: The observations as well as the simulations show the same month maximum occurrence of the monthly entomological inoculation rate (EIR_m).	≥3	+1	SSeas ESeas XSeas
		II: The majority of the observations and simulations show no or yearround transmission, respectively.
		III: The observations and simulations reveal mostly no transmission.
		IV: The month showing the most field observations of multiple years of EIR_mis identical to the particular month resulting from the simulation.
		SSeas/ESeas: Criterion I or II
		XSeas: Criterion III or IV

Criteria in terms of the evaluation of LMM simulations which are based on field observations in the area of synoptic stations. The malaria runs are rated separately for each station. Every fulfilled criterion increases the score of such a model run by one point. The sum of the achieved points at all stations and from the eleven entomological and parasitological variables finally add to the skill score of a particular LMM set of parameter settings (SC(all)). Columns: #: criteria number; name: short term; description: criterion description; n_obs: lowest number of available observations needed to fulfil the criterion; points: assigned number of points; var: malaria variables for which the particular criterion are applied.

ISSN: 1475-2875