Optimizing the programmatic deployment of the anti-malarials artemether-lumefantrine and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine using pharmacological modelling

Table 6 Predicted dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DHA-PPQ) treatment outcome (in %) in populations of 10,000 individuals at 63 days follow-up for different treatment scenarios group by dosing regimen (according to Table 2 ) and geographical region

Treatment scenario	Treatment outcome	Age-based dosing regimen				Weight-based dosing regimen
		Global	Africa	Asia	Latin America	Global	Africa	Asia	Latin America
Full course, i e, once daily over three days at 0, 24 and 48 hours	All parasites cleared	90.53	91.03	90.33	92.21	97.73	97.49	97.78	97.36
	Parasites below LoD	0.40	0.47	0.36	0.40	0.41	0.38	0.40	0.46
	Recrudescence	8.50	7.93	8.67	6.98	1.82	2.10	1.80	2.11
	Parasites always above LoD	0.57	0.57	0.64	0.41	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.07
Second dose missed	All parasites cleared	69.24	69.75	68.32	72.70	90.68	89.7	91.06	88.8
	Parasites below LoD	0.50	0.55	0.54	0.45	0.52	0.60	0.49	0.65
	Recrudescence	24.01	23.73	24.68	21.92	8.13	8.91	7.76	9.59
	Parasites always above LoD	6.25	5.97	6.46	4.93	0.67	0.79	0.69	0.96
Third dose missed	All parasites cleared	70.46	71.16	69.83	74.02	91.2	90.34	91.61	89.48
	Parasites below LoD	0.50	0.50	0.48	0.44	0.48	0.58	0.45	0.62
	Recrudescence	24.28	23.76	24.75	22.01	7.77	8.45	7.45	9.16
	Parasites always above LoD	4.76	4.58	4.94	3.53	0.55	0.63	0.49	0.74
Second and third dose missed	All parasites cleared	27.06	27.64	26.04	30.01	51.90	49.55	52.23	48.77
	Parasites below LoD	0.32	0.31	0.32	0.34	0.61	0.47	0.59	0.44
	Recrudescence	31.06	31.02	31.37	31.53	31.25	31.91	31.42	31.63
	Parasites always above LoD	41.56	41.03	42.27	38.12	16.24	18.07	15.76	19.16
Second and third dose delayed by 24 hours	All parasites cleared	89.80	90.18	89.48	91.55	97.62	97.36	97.65	97.19
	Parasites below LoD	0.44	0.47	0.41	0.40	0.41	0.40	0.44	0.47
	Recrudescence	8.96	8.54	9.29	7.42	1.93	2.20	1.88	2.24
	Parasites always above LoD	0.80	0.81	0.82	0.63	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.10

ISSN: 1475-2875