Table 1 Parameters used in the economic model and their distributions

Age-specific probabilities of death

Probability of dying between 0 and 1 year

0.0684 ± 20%

Beta

[35]

Probability of dying between 1 and 5 years

0.0424 ± 20%

Beta

[35]

Malaria-attributed deaths in under fives

11%

Point estimate

[49]

Weekly incidences of fever episodes per child

Less than 12 months

0.106 ± 20%

Beta

[50]

Age 12–23 months

0.144 ± 20%

Beta

[50]

Age 24–35 months

0.105 ± 20%

Beta

[50]

Age 36–47 months

0.087 ± 20%

Beta

[50]

Age 48–59 months

0.06 ± 20%

Beta

[50]

Case fatality rates and other probabilities

Untreated severe malaria

60 (45–80%)

Beta

[51]

Treated severe malaria

10.9%

Beta

[52]

Early treatment failure leads to severe malaria

5 (3–7%)

Beta

[41]

Untreated malaria becomes severe

5 (3–7%)

Beta

[40]

Spontaneous recovery from uncomplicated malaria

15 (10–20%)

Beta

Assumed

% of febrile episodes attributed to malaria

10.5 ± 20%

Beta

[46]

% of severe cases with access to inpatient care

80 ± 20%

Beta

[53]

% of uncomplicated cases with access to AL

50 (40–60%)

Beta

Primary data

Costs of treating malaria, by severity (US$/case)

Uncomplicated malaria

6.81 ± 20%

Gamma

Primary data

Severe malaria

76.46 ± 20%

Gamma

Primary data

Drug costs (US$ per dose)

DhP: 40 mg Dh, 320 mg P (“3×1” pack)

1.46 ± 20%

Gamma

[29]

AL: 20 mg A, 120 mg L (“6×2” pack)

1.31 ± 20%

Gamma

[29]

Quinine Injection, 300 mg/ml (2 ml ampoule)

2.15 ± 20%

Gamma

[27]

Diazepam Injection, 5 mg/ml (2 ml ampoule)

0.23 ± 20%

Gamma

[27]

Diclofenac Injection 25 mg/ml (3 ml ampoule)

0.20 ± 20%

Gamma

[27]

Dextrose 5% (500 ml bottle)

4.75 ± 20%

Gamma

[27]

Ferrous Sulphate + Folic acid, 200 + 0.25 mg

0.30 ± 20%

Gamma

[27]

Paracetamol Syrup 120 mg/5 ml

0.26 ± 20%

Gamma

[27]

Efficacy and compliance rates (%)

Efficacy of DhP

97.3 ± 2.5%

Beta

[13]

Efficacy of AL

95.5 ± 2.5%

Beta

[13]

Effectiveness of non-ACT anti-malarials

50 (40-60%)

Beta

[47, 48]

Compliance with AL

51 (38–65%)

Uniform

[43]

Compliance with DhP^a

70 (60–80%)

Uniform

Assumed

Compliance with DhP^b

51 (38–65%)

Uniform

Assumed

Non-compliers with ACTs who are cured

20 (10–30%)

Beta

[39–41]

Other parameters

Disability weight for uncomplicated malaria

0.005 (0.033–0.081)

Beta

[33]

Disability weight for severe malaria

0.21 (0.139–0.298)

Beta

[33]

Discount rate

3%

Point estimate

[54]

Decision threshold (US$ per DALY averted)

150

Point estimate

[55]

Life expectancy at age 5 years

57

Point estimate

[35]

Sensitivity of Microscopy

71.3 (68.8–73.9%)

Beta

[56]

Specificity of Microscopy

92.8 (91.3–94.3%)

Beta

[56]