Figure 5

The sensitivity of projected excess deaths in sub-Saharan Africa to key input parameters. The graph illustrates the relative impact of different parameters on model outputs. A key parameter is the probability of patients with a treatment failure becoming severely ill. A higher estimate of 5% implies a large increase in the total excess mortality in SSA to over 300,000 deaths per year. Another influential parameter is the treatment failure rate for ACT in the scenario of widespread resistance. If clinical failure rates were to resemble those documented in many previously used antimalarials the excess mortality would be far higher.