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Table 2 Odds of testing positive for P. falciparum infection during the follow-up survey: results from three geospatial models defined by baseline infection, anti-AMA-1 antibody prevalence, and anti MSP-1 19 antibody prevalence adjusted for age

From: Hot spot or not: a comparison of spatial statistical methods to predict prospective malaria infections

Risk factor Number tested Malaria in second year n. % OR 95% CI Wald test P-value Area under the ROC curve
PCR individual infection in baseline survey*      
Neg 1,763 827 [46.9] 1 <0.001 0.560
Pos 905 521 [57.6] 1.58 [1.31-1.83]   
PCR prevalence      
Satscan exposure category 792 319 [40.3] 1 0.181 0.620
coldspot 1,728 864 [50.0] 1.35 [0.87-2.09] <0.001 0.628
neither 726 500 [68.9] 4.54 [2.68-7.72] 0.966 0.597
hotspot 804 390 [48.5] 1 0.013  
Kernel exposure quartiles 819 387 [47.2] 0.99 [0.60-1.64] <0.001  
<14.9 818 331 [40.5] 0.53 [0.32-0.88] 0.165  
15-21.3 805 575 [71.4] 3.45 [2.06-5.75] 0.042  
21.4-27.1 816 420 [51.5] 1 0.003  
>27.1 794 344 [43.3] 0.69 [0.41-1.16]   
Weighted exposure quartiles 807 372 [46.1] 0.58 [0.35-0.98]   
<18.9 799 520 [65.1] 2.21 [1.31-3.73]   
19-23.2      
23.3-26.5      
>26.5      
AMA-1 individual prevalence      
No 1,262 594 [47.1] 1 <0.001 0.554
Yes 1,071 593 [55.4] 1.45 [1.21-1.72]   
AMA-1 prevalence      
Satscan exposure category 904 310 [34.3] 1 <0.001 0.647
coldspot 1,092 554 [50.7] 2.65 [1.69-4.15] <0.001 0.618
neither 1,250 819 [65.5] 5.84 [3.75-9.10] 0.002 0.609
hotspot 814 308 [37.8] 1 <0.001  
Kernel exposure quartiles 813 414 [50.9] 2.26 [1.35-3.79] <0.001  
<27.9 812 425 [52.3] 2.62 [1.57-4.39] 0.154  
28-38.9 807 536 [66.4] 5.16 [3.06-8.69] <0.001  
39-53.0 804 325 [40.4] 1 <0.001  
>53.0 809 357 [44.1] 1.45 [0.86-2.44]   
Weighted exposure quartiles 800 476 [59.5] 3.50 [2.07-5.91]   
<18.9 803 498 [62.0] 3.33 [1.97-5.62]   
19-23.9      
24 -26.9      
>26.9      
MSP-1 19 individual prevalence      
No 1,730 924 [53.4] 1 0.196 0.541
Yes 681 341 [50.1] 0.88 [0.73-1.06]   
MSP prevalence      
Satscan exposure category 1,703 992 [58.2] 1 0.040 0.591
coldspot 967 493 [51.0] 0.64 [0.41-0.98] <0.001 0.622
neither 576 198 [34.0] 0.21 [0.13-0.34] 0.773 0.625
hotspot 806 418 [51.9] 1 0.008 0.631
Kernel exposure quartiles 835 440 [52.7] 1.08 [0.65-1.78] <0.001  
<12.9 808 538 [66.6] 2.02 [1.21-3.38] 0.715  
13-17.3 797 287 [36.0] 0.34 [0.20-0.55] 0.006  
17.4-25.4 805 415 [51.6] 1 <0.001  
>25.4 813 430 [52.9] 1.10 [0.66-1.81]   
Weighted exposure quartiles 802 533 [66.5] 2.08 [1.23-3.51]   
<16.5 796 278 [34.9] 0.35 [0.21-0.57]   
16.6-18.3      
18.4-22.7      
>22.7      
MSP-1 19 &/ or AMA - 1 individual prevalence      
No 986 253 [25.6] 1 0.986 0.530
Yes 1,237 466 [37.7] 1.00 [0.78-1.29]   
MSP-1 19 &/or AMA-1 prevalence      
Satscan exposure category - 400 [48.4] - - -
coldspot - 357 [44.6] - - 0.604
neither - 386 [47.0] - - 0.530
hotspot 827 540 [67.8] 1 0.082  
Kernel exposure quartiles 800 402 [49.3] 0.63 [0.37 - 1.07] 0.310  
<44.5 822 380 [47.4] 0.77 [0.46-1.28] 0.001  
44.6-51.4 797 372 [45.6] 2.44 [1.44-4.14] 0.507  
51.5-59.3 816 502 [64.0] 1 0.063  
>59.4 801   0.84 [0.49-1.42] 0.023  
Weighted exposure quartiles 815   0.60 [0.36-1.03]   
<16.5 784   1.86 [1.09-3.18]   
16.6-18.3      
18.4-22.7      
>22.7      
  1. *Only individuals who were tested at both baseline and year 1.