Figure 11
![Figure 11](http://media.springernature.com/full/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1186%2F1475-2875-13-72/MediaObjects/12936_2013_Article_3131_Fig11_HTML.jpg)
Study of the fluctuations of the mean temperature from May to August using a Gaussian white noise model. The year 1776 was the epidemic breakpoint. An Arima model was used to plot prediction intervals at confidence levels of 80% and 95% in light grey and grey, respectively.