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Table 3 Expected malaria incidence by forecasting model and observed monthly malaria notification rates per 100 inhabitants of Karuzi, Burundi, in the validation period 2002–2003.

From: Forecasting malaria incidence based on monthly case reports and environmental factors in Karuzi, Burundi, 1997–2003

Month Expected Observed Month Expected Observed
Jan 2002 6.2 8.4 Jan 2003 2.7 4
Feb 7.3 5.4 Feb 3.3 3
Mar 5.8 5.2 Mar 4.3 3.4
Apr 5.8 3.8 Apr 3.9 3.6
May 3.3 4.4 May 4 4.3
Jun 5.5 4.3 Jun 4.7 3.7
Jul 4.5 4.3 Jul 4 4.1
Aug 4.5 3.1 Aug 3.3 2.4
Sep 3.5 4.1 Sep 3.7 2.6
Oct 4.1 4.7 Oct 2.7 3.1
Nov 5.5 3.2 Nov 4.2 1.5
Dec 4.4 3.2 Dec 1.3 1.1