From: Climate prediction of El Niño malaria epidemics in north-west Tanzania
Climate season | ||||||||||||
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Season 1 (Aug-Jan) | Season 2 (Feb-Jul) | |||||||||||
Malaria season | Epidemic year | n | model | Total rainfall | Max. temp. | Total rainfall | Max. temp. | BIC score | R-squared | Adjusted R-squared | Overall p-value | Comments |
Season 1 (Oct-Mar) | 1998 | 9 | 1 | p = 0.003 | n/a | n/a | n/a | 19.17 | 0.73 | 0.70 | p = 0.003 | |
Season 1 (Oct-Mar) | 1998 | 9 | 2 | n/a | p = 0.12 | n/a | n/a | 27.75 | 0.31 | 0.21 | p = 0.12 | |
Season 1 (Oct-Mar) | 1998 | 8 | A1 | p = 0.71 | n/a | n/a | n/a | 15.24 | 0.02 | -0.15 | p = 0.77 | Excluding epidemic year 1998 |
Season 1 (Oct-Mar) | 1998 | 8 | A2 | n/a | p = 0.14 | n/a | n/a | 12.27 | 0.32 | 0.21 | p = 0.14 | Excluding epidemic year 1998 |
Season 2 (Apr-Sep) | 1997 | 9 | 3 | n/a | n/a | p = 0.28 | n/a | 29.44 | 0.17 | 0.05 | p = 0.28 | |
Season 2 (Apr-Sep) | 1997 | 9 | 4 | n/a | p = 0.04 | n/a | n/a | 25.36 | 0.47 | 0.39 | p = 0.04 | |
Season 2 (Apr-Sep) | 1997 | 9 | 5 | n/a | p = 0.005 | p = 0.02 | n/a | 19.08 | 0.79 | 0.72 | p = 0.009 | |
Season 2 (Apr-Sep) | 1997 | 8 | B1 | n/a | n/a | p = 0.002 | n/a | 14.34 | 0.82 | 0.79 | p = 0.002 | Excluding epidemic year 1997 |
Season 2 (Apr-Sep) | 1997 | 8 | B2 | n/a | n/a | n/a | p = 0.96 | 28.22 | 0 | -0.17 | p = 0.96 | Excluding epidemic year 1997 |
Season 2 (Apr-Sep) | 1997 | 8 | B3 | n/a | p = 0.31 | n/a | n/a | 26.74 | 0.17 | 0.03 | p = 0.31 | Excluding epidemic year 1997 |
Season 2 (Apr-Sep) | 1997 | 8 | B4 | n/a | p = 0.03 | p = 0.001 | n/a | 8.4 | 0.94 | 0.91 | p = 0.001 | Excluding epidemic year 1997 |
Season 2 (Apr-Sep) | 1997 | 6 | C1 | n/a | n/a | p = 0.005 | n/a | 9.42 | 0.89 | 0.86 | p = 0.005 | Excluding 1997/8/9 |
Season 2 (Apr-Sep) | 1997 | 6 | C2 | n/a | n/a | n/a | p = 0.54 | 21.9 | 0.10 | -0.13 | p = 0.54 | Excluding 1997/8/9 |
Season 2 (Apr-Sep) | 1997 | 6 | C3 | n/a | p = 0.26 | n/a | n/a | 20.35 | 0.30 | 0.13 | p = 0.26 | Excluding 1997/8/9 |
Season 2 (Apr-Sep) | 1997 | 6 | C4 | n/a | p = 0.07 | p = 0.004 | n/a | 3.86 | 0.97 | 0.95 | p = 0.005 | Excluding 1997/8/9 |