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Table 1 Results of various multiple linear regression analyses of temperature and rainfall on log malaria incidence in Kagera regiona.

From: Climate prediction of El Niño malaria epidemics in north-west Tanzania

     Climate season         
     Season 1 (Aug-Jan)   Season 2 (Feb-Jul)       
Malaria season Epidemic year n model Total rainfall Max. temp. Total rainfall Max. temp. BIC score R-squared Adjusted R-squared Overall p-value Comments
Season 1 (Oct-Mar) 1998 9 1 p = 0.003 n/a n/a n/a 19.17 0.73 0.70 p = 0.003  
Season 1 (Oct-Mar) 1998 9 2 n/a p = 0.12 n/a n/a 27.75 0.31 0.21 p = 0.12  
Season 1 (Oct-Mar) 1998 8 A1 p = 0.71 n/a n/a n/a 15.24 0.02 -0.15 p = 0.77 Excluding epidemic year 1998
Season 1 (Oct-Mar) 1998 8 A2 n/a p = 0.14 n/a n/a 12.27 0.32 0.21 p = 0.14 Excluding epidemic year 1998
Season 2 (Apr-Sep) 1997 9 3 n/a n/a p = 0.28 n/a 29.44 0.17 0.05 p = 0.28  
Season 2 (Apr-Sep) 1997 9 4 n/a p = 0.04 n/a n/a 25.36 0.47 0.39 p = 0.04  
Season 2 (Apr-Sep) 1997 9 5 n/a p = 0.005 p = 0.02 n/a 19.08 0.79 0.72 p = 0.009  
Season 2 (Apr-Sep) 1997 8 B1 n/a n/a p = 0.002 n/a 14.34 0.82 0.79 p = 0.002 Excluding epidemic year 1997
Season 2 (Apr-Sep) 1997 8 B2 n/a n/a n/a p = 0.96 28.22 0 -0.17 p = 0.96 Excluding epidemic year 1997
Season 2 (Apr-Sep) 1997 8 B3 n/a p = 0.31 n/a n/a 26.74 0.17 0.03 p = 0.31 Excluding epidemic year 1997
Season 2 (Apr-Sep) 1997 8 B4 n/a p = 0.03 p = 0.001 n/a 8.4 0.94 0.91 p = 0.001 Excluding epidemic year 1997
Season 2 (Apr-Sep) 1997 6 C1 n/a n/a p = 0.005 n/a 9.42 0.89 0.86 p = 0.005 Excluding 1997/8/9
Season 2 (Apr-Sep) 1997 6 C2 n/a n/a n/a p = 0.54 21.9 0.10 -0.13 p = 0.54 Excluding 1997/8/9
Season 2 (Apr-Sep) 1997 6 C3 n/a p = 0.26 n/a n/a 20.35 0.30 0.13 p = 0.26 Excluding 1997/8/9
Season 2 (Apr-Sep) 1997 6 C4 n/a p = 0.07 p = 0.004 n/a 3.86 0.97 0.95 p = 0.005 Excluding 1997/8/9
  1. a Displayed in the table are the significance levels of each parameter included in the regression model. Each of models 1 to 5 is based on the 1991–1999 period. Models A1 and A2 refer to the first malaria season and were developed by excluding the 1998 epidemic year. The B models refer to the second malaria season and were developed by excluding the 1997 epidemic year. The C models are the same as their B equivalent but were based on the 1991–1996 period only. (n/a) Not calculated