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Table 1 ARIMA regression of the logarithmic monthly malaria incidence (1971–1999) on the weather factors in Mengla, China

From: One-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission: a time-series analysis in the rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China

 

Model I

Model II

 

β

S.E.

p

β

S.E.

p

Moving average

0.520

0.049

<.0001

0.517

0.049

<.0001

Seasonal moving average

0.799

0.035

<.0001

0.795

0.035

<.0001

Auto-regression

-0.165

0.057

0.004

-0.167

0.057

0.004

Humidity (lag 4)

-0.003

0.005

0.531

   

Rainfall (lag 4)

-0.0001

0.0001

0.478

   

T_max (lag 4)

0.012

0.010

0.212

0.018

0.008

0.021

T_min (lag 1)

0.032

0.010

0.002

0.032

0.010

0.002

T_min (lag 2)

0.027

0.010

0.008

0.028

0.010

0.006

Fog frequency (lag 7)

0.004

0.002

0.020

0.004

0.002

0.021

AIC

 

-202.2

  

-204.8

 
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Malaria Journal

ISSN: 1475-2875

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