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Table 1 ARIMA regression of the logarithmic monthly malaria incidence (1971–1999) on the weather factors in Mengla, China

From: One-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission: a time-series analysis in the rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China

  Model I Model II
  β S.E. p β S.E. p
Moving average 0.520 0.049 <.0001 0.517 0.049 <.0001
Seasonal moving average 0.799 0.035 <.0001 0.795 0.035 <.0001
Auto-regression -0.165 0.057 0.004 -0.167 0.057 0.004
Humidity (lag 4) -0.003 0.005 0.531    
Rainfall (lag 4) -0.0001 0.0001 0.478    
T_max (lag 4) 0.012 0.010 0.212 0.018 0.008 0.021
T_min (lag 1) 0.032 0.010 0.002 0.032 0.010 0.002
T_min (lag 2) 0.027 0.010 0.008 0.028 0.010 0.006
Fog frequency (lag 7) 0.004 0.002 0.020 0.004 0.002 0.021
AIC   -202.2    -204.8