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Table 2 Posterior estimates of regression coefficients and the variances related to random effects obtained by the different models

From: Spatio-seasonal modeling of the incidence rate of malaria in Mozambique

Coefficients

Non-Spatial Model

Spatial Model

Spatial Model + Non-structured random effects

Spatial-seasonal model

Age

    

   < = 1 year old

0.49 (0.22,0.73)

0.49 (0.22, 0.76)

0.49 (0.24, 0.77)

0.49 (0.24, 0.75)

   (1 and 5 years)

0.59 (0.35, 0.75)

0.59 (0.35, 0.85)

0.56 (0.35, 0.86)

0.60 (0.34, 0.86)

   Over 5 years

baseline

baseline

baseline

baseline

Season

    

   Wet

0.10 (-0.26, 0.45)

0.07 (-0.30, 0.42)

0.06 (-0.31, 0.42)

0.29 (-0.13, 0.73)

   Dry

baseline

baseline

baseline

baseline

Period

    

   First

-0.39 (-0.71, -0.07)

-0.37 (-0.69, -0.05)

-0.37 (-0.70, -0.04)

-0.35 (-0.66, -0.02)

   Second

-0.03 (-0.40, 0.33)

-0.04 (-0.42, 0.33)

-0.04 (-0.41, 0.32)

-0.03 (-0.42, 0.35)

   Third

baseline

baseline

baseline

baseline

Season × Period

    

   Wet & Second

0.49 (0.02, 0.98)

0.49 (0.03,0.96)

0.49 (0.03, 0.98)

0.462 (-0.02, 0.94)

   Wet & Second

0.76 (0.30, 1.25)

0.82 (0.33, 1.32)

0.82 (0.35, 1.30)

0.792 (0.32, 1.28)

Random effects

    

Spatial variation

-

1.29 (0.68, 0.93)

1.26 (0.97, 1.59)

1.67 (1.18, 2.28)1

    

1.22 (0.93, 1.57)2

Non-structured variation

-

-

0.18 (0.06,0.39)

-

DIC3

2333.65

2060.16

2061.59

2070.090

  1. 1spatial variance for the dry season, 2 spatial variance for the wet season, 3 DIC: Deviance Information Criterion. The smaller DIC value indicates a better fitting model. Credibility intervals at 95% in brackets