Table 4 Change in Protective Efficacy and rebound effect with changes in transmission
Transmission | Transmission effect per month (%) | Predicted protective efficacy over first 12 months (%) | Protection until | Rebound effect |
|---|---|---|---|---|
No maternal immunity | ||||
Fast increase | 1.25 (25) | 27.1 | 12 months | Yes |
Increasing | 1.05 (5) | 29.2 | 12 months | Yes |
Stable | 1 (0) | 30.6 | 13 months | Yes |
Slow decline | 0.95 (5) | 32.2 | 13 months | No |
Fast decline | 0.75 (25) | 42.8 | > 24 months | No |
Maternal immunity included | ||||
Fast increase | 1.25 (25) | 22.7 | 12 months | Yes |
Increasing | 1.05 (5) | 22.1 | 13 months | Yes |
Stable | 1 (0) | 23.0 | 14 months | Yes |
Slow decline | 0.95 (5) | 22.7 | 14 months | No |
Fast decline | 0.75 (25) | 23.1 | 16 months | No |