Table 3 Sensitivity Analysis – Impact of varying major assumptions on gross and net costs per malaria case averted
Variable | Change | Impact on gross cost per malaria case averted | Impact on net cost/savings per malaria case averted |
|---|---|---|---|
Attribution of shared campaign costs | All shared costs borne by measles component. | Decrease from 4.40 USD to 3.96 USD. | Decrease from 3.26 USD to 2.83 USD. |
Attribution of shared campaign costs | All shared costs borne by malaria component. | Increase from 4.40 USD to 4.83 USD. | Increase from 3.26 USD to 3.69 USD. |
Discount Rate | Decrease from 5% to 3% | Minimal decrease from 4.40 USD to 4.39 USD. | Minimal decrease from 3.26 USD to 3.25 USD. |
Discount Rate | Increase from 5% to 7% | Minimal increase from 4.40 USD to 4.41 USD. | Minimal increase from 3.26 USD to 3.27 USD. |
Lifetime of vehicles | From 8 and 10 years (depending on model) to 5 years | No change. | Minimal increase from 3.26 USD to 3.27 USD. |
Exchange Rate | From 1/12/2004 to 1/10/2004 | Minimal increase from 4.40 USD to 4.41 USD. | Minimal increase from 3.26 USD to 3.28 USD. |
Exchange Rate | From 1/12/2004 to 1/1/2005 | Minimal increase from 4.40 USD to 4.43 USD. | Minimal increase from 3.26 USD to 3.30 USD. |
Price of LLITN | 10% increase | Increase from 4.40 USD to 4.72 USD. | Increase from 3.26 USD to 3.58 USD. |
| Â | 10% decrease | Decrease from 4.40 USD to 4.08 USD. | Decrease from 3.26 USD to 2.94 USD. |
Duration of usage of LLITN | From 3 years to 2 years | Increase from 4.40 USD to 6.60 USD. | Increase from 3.26 USD to 5.46 USD. |
| Â | From 3 years to 4 years | Decrease from 4.40 USD to 3.30 USD. | Decrease from 3.26 USD to 2.16 USD. |
Usage of LLITN among < 5 year old children | From current ratio of 54% in Togo to higher rates used in Cochrane review (70%) | Decrease from 4.40 USD to 3.39 USD. | Decrease from 3.26 USD to 2.25 USD. |
Increase in transmission | From incidence of 1,209 per 1,000 p.a. to 1,727 per 1,000 p.a. | Decrease from 4.40 USD to 3.08 USD. | Decrease from 3.26 USD to 1.94 USD. |
Decrease in transmission | From incidence of 1,209 per 1,000 p.a. to 237 per 1,000 p.a. | Increase from 4.40 USD to 22.43 USD. | Increase from 3.26 USD to 21.29 USD. |
Percentage of febrile children accessing public health facilities | From 30% to 10% | No change by definition. | Increase from 3.26 USD to 4.02 USD. |
| Â | From 30% to 100% | No change by definition. | Decrease from 3.26 USD to 0.61 USD. |