Covariates

Bivariate
nonspatial

Multivariate
nonspatial

Prediction
model

Spatial Pspline model



OR (95%CI)

OR (95%CI)

OR (95%CI)

OR (95%CI)


Day LST

0.49 (0.43, 0.57)

0.65 (0.37, 1.15)

0.61 (0.32, 1.17)

*

Night LST

1.23 (1.09, 1.40)

1.21 (0.77, 1.88)

1.18 (0.79, 1.77)

*

NDVI

2.25 (1.90, 2.66)

1.28 (0.67, 2.73)

1.29 (0.66, 2.77)

*

Rainfall

1.56 (1.37, 1.76)

1.21 (0.85, 1.68)

1.18 (0.80, 1.73)

*

Land cover covariates
    
Wetland

1.20 (1.07, 1.34)

0.97 (0.62, 1.55)

0.98 (0.67, 1.48)

0.72 (0.40, 1.37)

Forest

0.96 (0.84, 1.10)

0.72 (0.43, 1.08)

0.72 (0.43, 1.10)

0.64 (0.38, 0.99)

Urban

0.35 (0.25, 0.50)

0.70 (0.38, 1.21)

0.71 (0.37, 1.29)

0.75 (0.33, 1.48)

Shrubland

1.06 (0.94, 1.20)

1.07 (0.76, 1.53)

1.05 (0.71, 1.47)

1.07 (0.72, 1.53)

Region (rural)
    
urban

0.17 (0.11, 0.25)

0.53 (0.14, 2.03)

0.37 (0.11, 1.13)

0.43 (0.12, 1.50)

Distance to water bodies (<1000 m)
    
10002499

0.71 (0.53, 0.96)

0.73 (0.29, 1.86)

0.71 (0.29, 1.72)

0.55 (0.19, 1.50)

25004999

0.54 (0.38, 0.77)

0.61 (0.20, 1.55)

0.60 (0.19, 1.72)

0.49 (0.17, 1.42)

≥ 5000

0.11 (0.04, 0.30)

0.22 (0.03, 1.40)

0.21 (0.03, 1.39)

0.20 (0.02, 1.93)

Altitude (<850 m)
    
8501199

0.72 (0.49, 1.06)

0.21 (0.03, 1.70)

0.22 (0.03, 1.80)

0.20 (0.02, 1.92)

12001399

0.73 (0.49, 1.09)

0.32 (0.03, 3.27)

0.30 (0.03, 3.29)

0.27 (0.02, 4.81)

≥ 1400

0.48 (0.25, 0.92)

0.74 (0.04, 10.2)

0.57 (0.03, 7.68)

0.32 (0.02, 7.86)

Socioeconomic index
(1^{st} quintile)
    
2^{nd} quintile

1.06 (0.75, 1.50)

1.21 (0.78, 1.92)





3^{rd} quintile

0.85 (0.60, 1.22)

1.31 (0.75, 2.23)





4^{th} quintile

0.28 (0.17, 0.46)

0.75 (0.33, 1.75)





5^{th} quintile

0.09 (0.04, 0.19)

0.40 (0.09, 1.56)





Interventions
    
IRS

0.16 (0.07, 0.36)

1.73 (0.42, 6.90)





Bed nets

0.59 (0.46, 0.77)

0.60 (0.39, 0.88)





 
Mean (95%CI)

Mean (95%CI)

Mean (95%CI)

Range (in km)







0.38 (0.21, 3.39)

σ^{2} (spatial error)







0.98 (0.01, 2.77)

τ^{2} (measurement error)



1.77 (0.90, 3.23)

1.71 (0.93, 2.84)

0.82 (0.01, 2.69)

 Associations between parasitaemia risk and predictors of the nonspatial model with linear terms and the Bayesian spatial logistic regression Pspline model presented as odds ratios (OR) with their respective 95% confidence intervals (CI).
 *: regression coefficients are based on Pspline curves