Skip to main content

Advertisement

Table 4 Parasitaemia risk predictors of different models

From: Geographical patterns and predictors of malaria risk in Zambia: Bayesian geostatistical modelling of the 2006 Zambia national malaria indicator survey (ZMIS)

Covariates Bivariate non-spatial Multivariate non-spatial Prediction model Spatial P-spline model
  OR (95%CI) OR (95%CI) OR (95%CI) OR (95%CI)
Day LST 0.49 (0.43, 0.57) 0.65 (0.37, 1.15) 0.61 (0.32, 1.17) *
Night LST 1.23 (1.09, 1.40) 1.21 (0.77, 1.88) 1.18 (0.79, 1.77) *
NDVI 2.25 (1.90, 2.66) 1.28 (0.67, 2.73) 1.29 (0.66, 2.77) *
Rainfall 1.56 (1.37, 1.76) 1.21 (0.85, 1.68) 1.18 (0.80, 1.73) *
Land cover covariates     
   Wetland 1.20 (1.07, 1.34) 0.97 (0.62, 1.55) 0.98 (0.67, 1.48) 0.72 (0.40, 1.37)
   Forest 0.96 (0.84, 1.10) 0.72 (0.43, 1.08) 0.72 (0.43, 1.10) 0.64 (0.38, 0.99)
   Urban 0.35 (0.25, 0.50) 0.70 (0.38, 1.21) 0.71 (0.37, 1.29) 0.75 (0.33, 1.48)
   Shrubland 1.06 (0.94, 1.20) 1.07 (0.76, 1.53) 1.05 (0.71, 1.47) 1.07 (0.72, 1.53)
   Region (rural)     
   urban 0.17 (0.11, 0.25) 0.53 (0.14, 2.03) 0.37 (0.11, 1.13) 0.43 (0.12, 1.50)
Distance to water bodies (<1000 m)     
   1000-2499 0.71 (0.53, 0.96) 0.73 (0.29, 1.86) 0.71 (0.29, 1.72) 0.55 (0.19, 1.50)
   2500-4999 0.54 (0.38, 0.77) 0.61 (0.20, 1.55) 0.60 (0.19, 1.72) 0.49 (0.17, 1.42)
   ≥ 5000 0.11 (0.04, 0.30) 0.22 (0.03, 1.40) 0.21 (0.03, 1.39) 0.20 (0.02, 1.93)
Altitude (<850 m)     
   850-1199 0.72 (0.49, 1.06) 0.21 (0.03, 1.70) 0.22 (0.03, 1.80) 0.20 (0.02, 1.92)
   1200-1399 0.73 (0.49, 1.09) 0.32 (0.03, 3.27) 0.30 (0.03, 3.29) 0.27 (0.02, 4.81)
   ≥ 1400 0.48 (0.25, 0.92) 0.74 (0.04, 10.2) 0.57 (0.03, 7.68) 0.32 (0.02, 7.86)
Socio-economic index (1st quintile)     
   2nd quintile 1.06 (0.75, 1.50) 1.21 (0.78, 1.92) - -
   3rd quintile 0.85 (0.60, 1.22) 1.31 (0.75, 2.23) - -
   4th quintile 0.28 (0.17, 0.46) 0.75 (0.33, 1.75) - -
   5th quintile 0.09 (0.04, 0.19) 0.40 (0.09, 1.56) - -
Interventions     
   IRS 0.16 (0.07, 0.36) 1.73 (0.42, 6.90) - -
   Bed nets 0.59 (0.46, 0.77) 0.60 (0.39, 0.88) - -
   Mean (95%CI) Mean (95%CI) Mean (95%CI)
Range (in km) - - - 0.38 (0.21, 3.39)
σ2 (spatial error) - - - 0.98 (0.01, 2.77)
τ2 (measurement error) - 1.77 (0.90, 3.23) 1.71 (0.93, 2.84) 0.82 (0.01, 2.69)
  1. Associations between parasitaemia risk and predictors of the non-spatial model with linear terms and the Bayesian spatial logistic regression P-spline model presented as odds ratios (OR) with their respective 95% confidence intervals (CI).
  2. *: regression coefficients are based on P-spline curves