Spatial and space–time clustering of mortality due to malaria in rural Tanzania: evidence from Ifakara and Rufiji Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites

Table 3 Malaria mortality clustering using spatial and space–time analysis in Rufiji and Ifakara HDSS for the study period

Cluster type	Location	Time frame	Circle radius (km)	LLR	Observed cases	Expected cases	RR	P value
Rufiji HDSS
Spatial analysis
Mostly likely	Mtawanya, Kinyanya, Pagae, Mchukwi A, Kibiti A, Kibiti B, Nyambili, Nyamwimbe, Mchukwi B, Bungu B	2005	12.09	11.41	112	80.75	2.10	<0.001
Mostly likely	Pagae, Bungu A, Mtawanya, Nyambili, Mchukwi A, Bungu B, Kinyanya, Nyamwimbe, Mlanzi, Kibiti A, Nyambunda	2006	12.16	7.83	111	82.13	1.71	<0.001
Mostly likely	Miwanga, Kimbuga, Ngulagula, Kibiti B, Kinyanya, Kibiti A, Mtawanya, Nyambunda, Mng’aru, Nyambili	2007	18.93	8.44	85	58.29	1.86	0.002
Space time analysis
Mostly time analysis	Pagae, Bungu A, Mtawanya, Nyambili, Mchukwi A, Bungu B, Kinyanya, Nyamwimbe, Mlanzi, Kibiti A, Nyambunda, Kibiti B	1999–2002	12.43	28.530	536	391.44	1.46	<0.001
Ifakara HDSS (Kilombero)
Spatial analysis
Mostly likely	Lukolongo, Mchombe	2008	4.41	4.562	35	21.3	1.87	0.046
Space time analysis
Mostly likely	Ikule, Mkangawalo, Mngeta, Lukolongoni, mchombe	2007–2009	18.81	22.961	181	109.01	1.82	<0.001
Ifakara HDSS(Ulanga)
Spatial analysis
Mostly likely	Igota, Lupiro, Kichangani	2010	3.30	5.302	27	14.96	2.30	0.023
Mostly likely	Kichangani	2012	0	4.255	9	3.03	3.44	0.045
Space time analysis
Mostly likely	Igota, Lupiro, Kichangani, Igumbiro, Idunda	2007–2009	10.13	11.566	125	81.69	1.66	<0.001

Mostly likely :primary cluster with highest likelihood; secondary cluster is the second cluster followed after mostly likely
LLR Log likelihood ratio, RR relative risk