Malaria Journal

Table 2 Prediction accuracy

From: Predictability of epidemic malaria under non-stationary conditions with process-based models combining epidemiological updates and climate variability

	Kutch		Barmer		Bikaner		Jaisalmer
	Pf	Pv	Pf	Pv	Pf	Pv	Pf	Pv
Past	0.778	0.722	0.722	0.778	0.833	0.778	0.778	0.722
Future⁽¹⁾	0.5	0.875	0.833	1	0.5	0.667	0.5	0.667
Future⁽²⁾	0.875	0.875	1	0.833	0.667	0.667	0.833	0.667

Accuracy of predicting the occurrence of a large fall outbreak in a given year is shown for the four districts and past and future years (other details are the same as those in Table 1)

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ISSN: 1475-2875

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