Serology describes a profile of declining malaria transmission in Farafenni, The Gambia

Malaria Journal

Table 2 Seroconversion and seroreversion rate estimates for MSP-1₁₉ between 1988 and 2011 in Farafenni, the Gambia

Year	Reversible catalytic model							Superinfection model
	Varied SRR (average SRR 0.024 year⁻¹; time to become seronegative 42 years)				Fixed SRR (common SRR 0.028 year⁻¹; time to become seronegative 36 years)			Varied SRR (average SRR 0.043 year⁻¹; time to become seronegative 23 years)				Fixed SRR (common SRR 0.049 year⁻¹; time to become seronegative 20 years)
	SRR (95 % CI)	SCR (95 % CI)	% Decrease in SCR since previous survey	% Decrease in SCR since 1988 survey	SCR (95 % CI)	% Decrease in SCR since previous survey	% Decrease in SCR since 1988 survey	SRR (95 % CI)	SCR (95 % CI)	% Decrease in SCR since previous survey	% Decrease in SCR since 1988 survey	SCR (95 % CI)	% Decrease in SCR since previous survey	% Decrease in SCR since 1988 survey
1988	0.039 (0.017–0.090)	0.073 (0.059–0.091)			0.069 (0.059–0.080)			0.070 (0.035–0.137)	0.078 (0.062–0.099)			0.072 (0.062–0.083)
1990	0.037 (0.023–0.059)	0.070 (0.055–0.088)	4	4	0.062 (0.055–0.071)	10	10	0.071 (0.047–0.106)	0.078 (0.060–0.100)	0	0	0.064 (0.046–0.091)	11	11
2003	0.022 (0.011–0.045)	0.043 (0.034–0.055)	39	41	0.046 (0.040–0.053)	26	33	0.038 (0.020–0.073)	0.046 (0.035–0.060)	41	41	0.050 0.036–0.072	22	31
2008	0.022 (0.011–0.041)	0.033 (0.026–0.043)	23	55	0.036 (0.031–0.042)	22	48	0.036 (0.020–0.064)	0.036 (0.027–0.047)	22	54	0.041 (0.029–0.059)	18	43
2011	~0 (NA)	0.019 (0.015–0.024)	42	74	0.022 (0.017–0.028)	39	68	~0 (NA)	0.019 (0.015–0.024)	47	76	0.024 (0.016–0.037)	42	67

CI confidence interval; NA not applicable. Seroconversion rate (SCR) and seroreversion rate (SRR) estimates according to the reversible catalytic and superinfection model for five surveys between 1988 and 2011, while fixing the SRR and allowing the SRR to vary

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