Monthly malaria incidence as calculated by the ABM (red line: total malaria incidence, light blue
P. vivax malaria incidence, dark blue
P. falciparum malaria incidence). The simulated malaria incidence curves are compared with the observed monthly malaria incidence (black line) and the Nanay river level (blue dotted line) in Padre Cocha, Loreto, Peru, during the period from the beginning of the year 1996 to the end of the year 1998. The observed incidence curve is obtained from the study of Bautista et al.