Potential public health impact of RTS,S malaria candidate vaccine in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study

Malaria Journal

Table 4 Model validation, clinical and severe malaria in vaccine and control arms

	Trial	Model	% Delta
Age group 6–12 weeks
Clinical episodes
Control	3718	3798	+2.2
Vaccine	4487	4802	+7.0
Severe episodes (% of clinical episodes)
Control (%)	2.76	2.70	−2.2
Vaccine (%)	2.91	3.58	+23
Age group 5–17 months
Clinical episodes
Control	5409	4967	−8.2
Vaccine	5133	4154	−19
Severe episodes (% of clinical episodes)
Control (%)	2.20	1.96	−10.9
Vaccine (%)	2.27	2.69	+18.5

Number of cases of clinical malaria (defined as in Table 1) over the 18-month follow-up period observed in the control and vaccine arms of the Phase III trial and predicted by the model in each age group
Twice as many patients were randomized to the vaccine arm as the control arm

ISSN: 1475-2875