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Table 2 Malaria cases in 2010, total number of clinical cases of malaria over a 5 year period (2016–2020) for a scenario with no ACT resistance, and the additional malaria cases for each resistance scenario over the same time period (all in millions)

From: Assessing the potential impact of artemisinin and partner drug resistance in sub-Saharan Africa

  Malaria incidence in 2010 (millions) Total malaria cases with no ACT resistance (2016–2020) (millions) Additional malaria cases due to ACT resistance (2016–2020) (millions)
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5
Angola 7.94 43.76 0.77 0.52 2.19 0.38 1.09
Benin 4.19 28.62 0.26 0.34 0.84 0.00 0.50
Botswana 0.10 0.68 0.05 0.04 0.13 0.02 0.06
Burkina Faso 9.89 54.99 0.34 0.84 0.63 0.00 0.97
Burundi 1.63 5.10 0.22 0.09 0.64 0.13 0.28
Cameroon 10.51 58.64 0.70 0.67 2.03 0.21 1.12
Central Afr Rep 2.37 12.80 0.18 0.17 0.55 0.06 0.29
Chad 5.53 28.49 0.72 0.51 2.02 0.31 1.01
Congo 1.97 10.22 0.24 0.16 0.67 0.10 0.33
Cote d’Ivoire 10.85 57.80 0.65 0.70 2.04 0.18 1.11
Djibouti 0.03 0.13 0.02 0.01 0.05 0.00 0.03
Dem Rep Congo 19.13 128.40 2.34 1.51 7.34 1.06 3.10
Eq. Guinea 0.31 1.97 0.02 0.02 0.07 0.00 0.04
Eritrea 0.35 2.76 0.20 0.07 0.61 0.11 0.28
Ethiopia 2.60 41.38 1.02 0.57 3.25 0.22 1.45
Gabon 0.58 4.64 0.04 0.06 0.16 0.01 0.09
Gambia 0.35 1.85 0.06 0.04 0.18 0.04 0.09
Ghana 8.74 59.20 0.94 0.82 2.90 0.31 1.48
Guinea 5.16 27.27 0.49 0.30 1.48 0.25 0.74
Guinea-Bissau 0.29 2.10 0.07 0.05 0.20 0.04 0.10
Kenya 3.47 23.62 0.53 0.15 2.06 0.12 0.81
Lesotho 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Liberia 1.51 9.59 0.18 0.13 0.54 0.08 0.26
Malawi 6.95 36.22 0.37 0.31 1.14 0.14 0.57
Mali 6.33 48.80 0.32 0.57 0.63 0.00 0.79
Mauritania 0.59 3.12 0.11 0.07 0.33 0.07 0.17
Mozambique 10.31 61.22 0.65 0.71 1.90 0.05 1.14
Namibia 0.21 1.53 0.06 0.03 0.17 0.03 0.07
Niger 5.46 34.27 0.64 0.46 1.86 0.36 1.00
Nigeria 75.33 375.69 7.02 5.04 19.84 2.80 10.12
Rwanda 0.50 1.04 0.10 0.06 0.25 0.04 0.07
Senegal 1.47 8.10 0.23 0.13 0.74 0.07 0.27
Sierra Leone 2.36 9.72 0.21 0.14 0.62 0.09 0.27
Somalia 1.06 5.70 0.42 0.16 1.27 0.20 0.53
South Africa 1.36 4.84 0.51 0.30 1.64 0.20 0.70
South Sudan 3.20 16.69 0.77 0.41 2.13 0.38 1.07
Sudan 6.68 32.64 2.01 0.77 4.90 0.95 2.29
Swaziland 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tanzania 10.45 41.10 1.22 0.82 3.45 0.56 1.69
Togo 2.82 20.03 0.21 0.27 0.62 0.01 0.36
Uganda 13.26 81.38 1.29 1.04 3.99 0.47 1.98
Zambia 2.51 28.33 0.49 0.25 1.33 0.18 0.63
Zimbabwe 0.99 5.96 0.14 0.05 0.37 0.02 0.13
Totals 249.33 1420.39 26.81 19.30 77.77 10.23 39.04