Fig. 2

Conditional effect plots for a multinomial generalized additive model of mosquito relative abundance. Plot a shows An. arabiensis, plot b shows An. funestus and plot c shows An. gambiae/An. coluzzii. Each plot illustrates the relationship between the predicted relative abundance of the three species and predicted habitat suitability (from Sinka et al. [15] on the logit-scale, rescaled to the unit interval) for each vector. In each plot the habitat suitability values for the other two species are held at their mean values in the dataset: An. arabiensis 0.568; An. funestus 0.450; An. gambiae/An. coluzzii 0.606. The predictions are faded out where the suitability scores are outside the 95 % quantiles of the dataset, where the model had less data with which to estimate the curves and the predictions are therefore less certain (i.e. the suitability scores of the species in question for all of the ratio records except the 2.5 % of datapoints with the lowest suitability scores, and the 2.5 % with the highest, all fall within the full-colour region)