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Table 2 Adjusted estimated effect of ownership of mosquito net on malaria mortality in three models for Rufiji HDSS

From: Assessing the effects of mosquito nets on malaria mortality using a space time model: a case study of Rufiji and Ifakara Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites in rural Tanzania

  M1 M2 M3
IRR (95 % CI) IRR (95 % CI) IRR (95 % CI)
All age
 Intercept 0.004 (0.00, 0.180) 0.0002 (0.0, 0.170) 0.0002 (0.0, 0.175)
 Mosquito nets 0.959 (0.944, 0.975) 0.948 (0.917, 0.977) 0.950 (0.919, 0.977)
 Annual rainfall 1.047 (1.024, 1.071) 1.066 (1.031, 1.107) 1.066 (1.031, 1.106)
 Average temperature 0.998 (0.986, 1.009) 1.007 (0.986, 1.031) 1.006 (0.986, 1.029)
 Mean NDVI 1.045 (0.985,1.109) 1.058 (0.974, 1.146) 1.059 (0.976, 1.147)
 Spatial random effect   21.89 (6.82, 57.92) 22.16 (6.89, 59.28)
 Temporal random effect   80.26 (11.49, 265.0) 120.96 (13.44, 475.23)
 Spatial–temporal random effect    24,453.3 (1988.4, 97, 438.8)
 DIC 1933.614 1880.076 1902.217
Under five
 Intercept 2.294 (0.01, 72.539) 0.151 (0.0, 18.81) 0.160 (0.0, 14.161)
 Mosquito nets 0.951 (0.929, 0.973) 0.946 (0.909, 0.982) 0.946 (0.910, 0.982)
 Annual rainfall 1.037 (1.003, 1.072) 1.056 (1.008, 1.110) 1.054 (1.007, 1.107)
 Average temperature 0.982 (0.965, 0.998) 0.989 (0.962, 1.100) 0.989 (0.963, 1.018)
 Mean NDVI 1.010 (0.926, 1.102) 1.030 (0.934, 1.137) 1.030 (0.934, 1.137)
 Spatial random effect   28,708.6 (3481.2, 89,382.7) 28,499.5 (3476.5, 88, 897.6)
 Temporal random effect   44.87 (7.71, 139.67) 54.73 (8.59, 180.77)
 Spatial–temporal random effect    18,370.02 (18,242.8, 66, 475.6)
 DIC 1504.408 1483.748 1508.173
  1. The effect of rain was estimated for every 100-mm increase in mean total annual rainfall, and the effect of mosquito net for every 10 % increase in household ownership. The effect of NDVI was estimated for every 0.1 increase in mean NDVI
  2. IRR incidence rate ratio; M 1 model without spatial and temporal random terms; M 2 model with spatial and temporal random terms; M 3 model with spatial and temporal random terms and interaction