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Table 3 Model forecasting and validation for 2-, 3-, 6-, and 12-step ahead predictions for both models, with or without the external regressor (EVI at a lag of 2 months) over the period from January 2014 to September 2015

From: Time series analysis of malaria in Afghanistan: using ARIMA models to predict future trends in incidence

Steps ahead Model
Model 1 Model 2
(4,1,1) × (1,0,1)12 (4,1,1) × (1,0,1)12—lag 2 vegetation (1,1,1) × (1,0,1)12 (1,1,1) × (1,0,1)12—lag 2 vegetation
MSE R2 MSE R2 MSE R2 MSE R2
2 0.041 0.897 0.045 0.887 0.045 0.887 0.041 0.897
3 0.075 0.812 0.075 0.810 0.064 0.838 0.066 0.833
6 0.113 0.634 0.132 0.666 0.107 0.729 0.107 0.729
12 0.160 0.595 0.168 0.575 0.145 0.633 0.144 0.638