Fig. 3

Simulated transmission intensity in a Bbondo b Luumbo and c Munyumbwe HFCAs compared with RDT prevalence measurements taken during MTAT and MDA/fMDA rounds and RDT-confirmed fevers reported by health facilities and CHWs. In the bottom row of each panel, simulated clinical cases included both treated and untreated symptomatic cases of malaria, while simulated treated cases are cases that have contacted the health system and would potentially show up in clinic and CHW reporting. The relevant comparison is therefore between the gray bars and the yellow line and area. Each simulation trace shows the mean and range of 1000 realizations, with the yellow shaded area expanded by 150% to indicate additional uncertainty in treatment and reporting rates