Fig. 2

Visual predictive check of final population pharmacokinetic model of artesunate (a) and dihydroartemisinin (b), and population pharmacodynamic model (c) in patients with uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria. The open circles are observed data points, the solid red line represents the 50th percentile of observed data; dashed red lines represent the 5th and 95th percentiles (pharmacokinetic model) and the 10th and 90th percentiles (pharmacodynamic model) of observed data; shaded areas are the model predicted 95% confidence intervals of the simulated percentiles; vertical grey lines represent the lower limit of quantification (LLOQ) for artesunate (3.12 nM), dihydroartemisinin (7.02 nM) and parasite density (10^7.73). The lower panels show the fraction of observed data below the LLOQ (open circles) overlaid with the 95% prediction interval of the fraction of simulated data below the LLOQ (shaded area)