Fig. 3

Results of model validation on simulated data. The x-axis shows the value for the duration of blood-stage infection (d _BS ) used to simulate the data, and the y-axis shows the estimated median and 95% credible intervals. Circles denote data simulated assuming no heterogeneity and seasonality of exposure to infectious mosquito bites. Triangles denote data simulated assuming heterogeneity in exposure. Squares denote data simulated assuming seasonality in exposure. Each panel represents a different combination of detectability (q) and shape parameter (κ _WB ) for either P. falciparum or P. vivax