Fig. 4

The dynamics of S-ELPAs and S-SEIRS models with white noise. a Simulation of total adult mosquitoes at different sizes of initial population. The graph shows how the oscillatory behavior becomes disrupted by noise in smaller populations, whereas large populations conform close to the equilibria. b Comparison of the malaria infected cases in humans between deterministic and stochastic simulations. The red curve shows the mean, and the gray shaded region shows the range for simulations of stochastic SEIRS model. The blue curve is from the original deterministic SEIRS model. While deterministic simulation tends to an endemic equilibrium, stochastic simulations show possible extinctions of the disease, as expected. The agreement between deterministic and mean stochastic simulations implies that a small fraction of the stochastic trajectory go to extinction in the simulations