Table 2 Regression coefficients and 95% CrI from Bayesian spatial and non-spatial models of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax cases reported by month and district, Viet Nam, 2005–2014

Model I

 Intercept^a

− 1.67 (− 1.94, − 1.35)

− 1.93 (− 2.24, − 1.72)

 Treated net coverage^b

0.99 (0.988, 0.99)

1.012 (1.01, 1.013)

 IRS^b

1.009 (1.007, 1.11)

1.005 (1.004, 1.007)

 Temp max (degree celsius)

1.039 (1.035, 1.044)

1.01 (1.006, 1.014)

 Mean monthly trend

1.003 (1.000, 1.005)

0.99 (0.987, 0.992)

 Probability of extra zero

0.15 (0.15, 0.16)

0.20 (0.19, 0.21)

 Heterogeneity^a

 Unstructured

0.13 (0.11, 0.14)

0.17 (0.14, 0.19)

 Structured (spatial)

 Structured (trend)

0.96 (0.80, 1.13)

1.14 (0.92, 1.39)

 DIC

118700

53474.2

Model II

 Intercept^a

− 1.69 (− 1.75, − 1.63)

− 1.88 (− 1.97 − 1.80)

 ITN coverage^b

0.99 (0.987, 0.992)

0.92 (0.91 0.92)

 IRS^b

1.039 (1.035, 1.044)

1.04 (1.03 1.05)

 Temp max (degree celsius)

1.008 (1.005, 1.01)

1.009 (1.005 1.01)

 Mean monthly trend

1.003 (1.000, 1.005)

1.003 (1.002, 1.004)

 Probability of extra zero

0.16 (0.14, 0.17)

0.20 (0.18 0.22)

 Heterogeneity^a

 Unstructured

0.19 (0.16 0.23)

 Structured (spatial)

0.93 (0.15, 0.20)

1.13 (0.91 1.39)

 Structured (trend)

0.18 (0.77, 1.10)

 DIC

119226

53527

Model III^c

 Intercept^a

− 1.78 (− 1.90, − 1.64)

− 1.88 (− 1.98, − 1.79)

 ITN coverage^b

0.989 (0.988, 0.991)

1.01 (1.009, 1.014)

 IRS^b

1.009 (1.007, 1.01)

1.005 (1.003, 1.007)

 Temp max (degree censuis)

1.04 (1.035, 1.043)

1.016 (1.009, 1.02)

 Mean monthly trend

1.003 (1.000, 1.005)

0.988 (0.985, 0.99)

 Probability of extra zero

0.15 (0.14, 0.16)

0.20 (0.18, 0.22)

 Heterogeneity^a

 Unstructured

0.88 (0.62, 1.32)

2.52 (1.52, 4.32)

 Structured (spatial)

0.38 (0.26, 0.54)

0.29 (0.21, 0.38)

 Structured (trend)

0.94 (0.78, 1.12)

1.14 (0.91, 1.39)

 DIC

118695

53436.7