Investigating the upsurge of malaria prevalence in Zambia between 2010 and 2015: a decomposition of determinants

Malaria Journal

Table 3 Effect sizes and marginal effects of predictor variables on malaria

Variable	Unadjusted		Adjusted		Marginal effects
Variable	Odds ratio (95% CIs)	P-value	Odds ratios (95% CIs)	P-values	Marginal effect (95% CIs)	P-value
Age (12–59 months)	4.15 (2.90–5.95)	< 0.001	4.04 (2.80 –5.81)	< 0.001	0.175 (0.128, 0.222)	< 0.001
Sex (female)	0.89 (0.76–1.05)	0.161	0.90 (0.75–1.08)	0.240	− 0.014 (− 0.036, 0.009)	0.245
Residence (urban)	0.18 (0.12–0.28)	< 0.001	0.23 (0.15–0.37)	< 0.001	− 0.182 (− 0.241, − 0.123)	< 0.001
Altitude	1.00 (0.99–1.00)	0.827	1.00 (0.99–1.00)	0.034	< − 0.001	0.032
Standard house (yes)	0.27 (0.20–0.37)	< 0.001	0.40 (0.35–0.71)	< 0.001	− 0.089 (− 0.132, − 0.043)	< 0.001
Wealth status (not poorest 5th)	0.44 (0.35 –0.55)	< 0.001	0.65 (0.52 –0.81)	< 0.001	− 0.055 (− 0.083, − 0.027)	< 0.001
Indoor residual spraying (yes)	0.61 (0.46–0.80)	0.001	0.66 (0.49–0.89)	0.008	− 0.051 (− 0.089, − 0.014)	0.007
Slept net previous night (yes)	0.78 (0.66–0.91)	0.002	0.90 (0.77–0.97)	0.192	− 0.013 (− 0.033, − 0.007)	0.193
Rainfall	1.00 (1.00–1.00)	< 0.001	1.00 (0.99–1.05)	0.250	< 0.001	0.250
Temperature	0.73 (0.66–0.80)	< 0.001	0.71 (0.62 –0.82)	< 0.001	− 0.042 (− 0.060,–0.025)	< 0.001

MIS year (2010 baseline)	Ref	Ref	Ref	Ref
(2012)	0.82 (0.64–1.05)	0.122	1.11 (0.84–1.45)	0.460
(2015)	1.48 (1.14–1.92)	0.003	1.69 (1.32–2.17)	< 0.001

ISSN: 1475-2875