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Table 3 Posterior estimates for the effects of prevalence (PP and confirmed malaria) on malaria-specific mortality

From: Modelling the relationship between malaria prevalence as a measure of transmission and mortality across age groups

Covariate Infants 1–4 years 5–14 years 15–59 years 60+ Overallb
RR (95% BCIa) RR (95% BCI) RR (95% BCI) RR (95% BCI) RR (95% BCI) RR (95% BCI)
PPc 1.73 (0.74–4.21) 2.29 (1.17–4.29) 0.56 (0.14–2.03) 1.55 (0.48–4.86) 2.24 (0.67–7.44) 1.66 (1.07–2.54)
Clinical malariac 2.23 (0.55–8.36) 3.37 (1.23–8.93) 7.56 (1.20–39.54) 0.60 (0.08–3.91) 0.77 (0.09–5.64) 2.50 (1.27–4.81)
Net use 1.11 (0.61–1.97) 0.74 (0.48–1.14) 1.02 (0.40–2.35) 0.64 (0.28–1.35) 0.72 (0.30–1.77) 0.81 (0.61–1.11)
Distance to facility
 0–1 km 1 1 1 1 1 1
 1–2 km 1.11 (0.85–1.48) 0.89 (0.72–1.11) 1.17 (0.75–1.86) 1.36 (0.93–2.03) 1.10 (0.71–1.72) 1.02 (0.89–1.17)
 > 2 km 1.19 (0.88–1.61) 1.00 (0.80–1.27) 1.56 (0.97–2.52) 1.13 (0.73–1.76) 1.15 (0.72–1.87) 1.09 (0.94–1.27)
SES
 Poorest 1 1 1 1 1 1
 Poor 0.90 (0.67–1.19) 0.83 (0.67–1.03) 1.10 (0.72–1.65) 0.92 (0.61–1.35) 1.08 (0.70–1.63) 0.92 (0.80–1.06)
 Least poor 0.96 (0.73–1.26) 0.78 (0.63–0.98) 0.94 (0.62–1.44) 0.86 (0.59–1.25) 1.05 (0.68–1.61) 0.88 (0.76–1.03)
Period
 2007–2010 1 1 1 1 1 1
 2011–2015 0.58 (0.45–0.72) 0.56 (0.47–0.67) 0.72 (0.51–1.03) 0.64 (0.47–0.88) 0.68 (0.47–0.96) 0.56 (0.50–0.63)
Elevation
 1147–1243 1 1 1 1 1 1
 1244–1293 1.05 (0.75–1.46) 1.17 (0.85–1.61) 0.94 (0.54–1.60) 1.05 (0.62–1.77) 0.89 (0.50–1.55) 1.08 (0.87–1.34)
 1294–1327 0.47 (0.31–0.70) 1.10 (0.78–1.58) 1.02 (0.56–1.79) 0.79 (0.45–1.41) 1.00 (0.55–1.75) 0.84 (0.67–1.08)
 1328–1365 0.65 (0.43–0.98) 1.00 (0.70–1.47) 0.99 (0.51–1.88) 0.89 (0.49–1.65) 1.15 (0.60–2.14) 0.88 (0.68–1.13)
 > 1365 0.36 (0.21–0.58) 0.88 (0.58–1.34) 1.39 (0.69–2.76) 0.58 (0.28–1.16) 1.29 (0.65–2.50) 0.71 (0.52–0.94)
Spatial variance 0.53 (0.17–2.43) 0.75 (0.21–4.40) 0.49 (0.16–2.43) 0.78 (0.18–4.08) 0.64 (0.22–2.65) 0.95 (0.21–7.62)
Ranged 22.40 (8.42–92.52) 16.00 (8.22–74.12) 28.82 (8.47–91.99) 15.40 (8.21–86.65) 16.87 (8.32–75.36) 15.27 (8.19–78.32)
  1. Mortality and malaria data aggregated by 4 to 5-year periods (i.e. 2007–2010 and 2011–2015)
  2. aThe effects are presented as the median of mortality rate ratios (RR) and 95% Bayesian Credible Intervals (BCI) adjusted for geographical variation and other predictors
  3. bAge-adjusted
  4. cThey are obtained from different models. Estimates of the rest of the predictors are from the models with confirmed malaria and do not differ from the PP model. PP estimates are only provided for comparison purposes
  5. dMinimum distance in kilometres at which spatial correlation is less than 5%
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