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Table 2 Patterns resulting from combining one round of MDA with sustained test-and-treat programmes

From: Resurgence of malaria infection after mass treatment: a simulation study

Pattern

Effect of test-and-treat alone

Incremental effect of MDA

Resurgence

Number of OpenMalaria simulations (%)

A

Minimal change to stable state

Transient effect only

Yesa

2124 (26.2%)

B

New endemic stable state

Transient effect only

Yes

4953 (61.1%)

C

New endemic stable state

Speeds up achievement of lower stable state

No

522 (6.4%)

D

New endemic stable state

Elimination

Nob

246 (3.0%)

E

Elimination

Minimal speed up in achievement of elimination

Yes

62 (0.8%)

F

Elimination

Speed up in achievement of elimination

No

193 (2.4%)

  1. a48 of these simulations were classified as no-resurgence, because the effect of MDA was minimal
  2. b59 of these simulations were classified as resurgent, because there was a brief prevalence increase after MDA, followed by a subsequent crash classified as interruption of transmission