Table 3 Simulated transmission and treatment rates during the 4 years after MDA (medians and inter-quartile ranges)
From: Resurgence of malaria infection after mass treatment: a simulation study
CM coverage (E14) | Pattern | Entomological inoculation rate (EIR, infectious bites per person-year) | Rate of routine case management (treatments per 1000 person-years) | Screening rate (tests per 1000 person-years) | Ratio of facility treatment rate to EIR | Ratio of community treatment rate to EIR | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Simulations with MDA | Control simulations | Simulations with MDA | Control simulations | Simulations with MDA | Control simulations | Simulations with MDA | Control simulations | Simulations with MDA | Control simulations | ||
84% | A | 1.39 (0.82, 2.43) | 2.71 (1.89, 4.04) | 67.2 (50.3, 82.5) | 99.2 (87.8, 105.9) | 38.1 (26.5, 52.3) | 39.9 (27.4, 53.6) | 48.4 (33.9, 61.3) | 36.2 (26.1, 46.8) | 3.6 (2.5, 4.9) | 3.1 (2.2, 4.3) |
84% | B | 0.56 (0.28, 1.03) | 1.26 (0.67, 2.00) | 36.5 (21.6, 54.1) | 66.3 (44.7, 83.8) | 116.9 (79.9, 171.4) | 129.3 (88.0, 194.0) | 65.3 (52.5, 78.3) | 52.1 (40.9, 66.4) | 11.9 (8.2, 17.5) | 11.4 (7.6, 17.8) |
84% | C | 0.12 (0.07, 0.19) | 0.47 (0.32, 0.73) | 10.4 (6.7, 15.5) | 36.8 (25.9, 49.3) | 86.5 (49.8, 135.1) | 111.7 (67.0, 181.3) | 87.9 (80.7, 99.0) | 75.3 (66.7, 86.9) | 10 (5.7, 15.3) | 11.3 (6.7, 18.2) |
84% | D | 0.04 (0.02, 0.06) | 0.22 (0.14, 0.32) | 3.6 (1.9, 5.7) | 19.9 (13.5, 28.7) | 63.2 (31.0, 101.5) | 103.1 (64.9, 161.7) | 99.5 (91.3, 107.8) | 90.5 (85.1, 96.8) | 7.2 (3.6, 11.4) | 10.7 (6.8, 16.2) |
84% | E | 0.04 (0.03, 0.06) | 0.07 (0.04, 0.14) | 4.1 (3.0, 5.8) | 7.2 (3.7, 12.8) | 117.9 (90.7, 179.0) | 144.6 (106.5, 204) | 101.7 (91.9, 107.9) | 97.2 (89.5, 102.4) | 12.1 (9.6, 18.3) | 15.2 (11.4, 19.9) |
84% | F | 0.02 (0, 0.03) | 0.08 (0.04, 0.13) | 1.7 (0.3, 3.3) | 7.9 (4.1, 12.3) | 58.8 (15.9, 109.6) | 131.9 (96.8, 191.0) | 97.9 (81.4, 107.8) | 94.8 (89.2, 99.6) | 6.7 (2.1, 11.7) | 13.3 (10.1, 18.1) |
16% | A | 1.55 (0.92, 2.28) | 2.79 (1.91, 3.78) | 11.4 (9.2, 13.0) | 15.2 (14.1, 15.9) | 36.5 (25.1, 47.0) | 39.1 (27.1, 51) | 7.3 (5.7, 10.1) | 5.5 (4.2, 7.5) | 5.7 (3.8, 7.5) | 5.1 (3.5, 6.8) |
16% | B | 0.87 (0.43, 1.51) | 1.71 (0.99, 2.57) | 8 (5.5, 10.6) | 12.2 (9.9, 14.0) | 106.8 (77.5, 152.6) | 121.4 (87.6, 179.5) | 9.2 (6.9, 12.3) | 7.2 (5.3, 9.9) | 17.9 (13, 25.6) | 17.4 (12.0, 26.4) |
16% | C | 0.14 (0.1, 0.18) | 0.58 (0.4, 0.76) | 2.1 (1.4, 2.9) | 7.2 (5.5, 8.9) | 83.2 (62.3, 100.3) | 139.7 (103.0, 177) | 16.2 (14.9, 17.6) | 12.6 (12.0, 13.4) | 19.7 (15.5, 23.7) | 27.9 (20.1, 35.2) |