Health systems and global progress towards malaria elimination, 2000–2016

Malaria Journal

Table 4 Backward stepwise regression model results (coefficients and R-squared) for malaria case reductions and health system components, 2000–2016, stratified by burden category

	Health system component	Percent reduction in cases per capita, 2000–2016 (ß)			Reached 0 cases by 2016 (ß)
	Initial burden category^a	Low	Middle	High	Low
1	Health service delivery, routine services	Not selected	Not selected	17.2**	Not selected
2	Access to medicines	− 12.4	12.1	Not selected	Not selected
3	Health system workforce	Not selected	Not selected	Not selected	Not selected
4	Health system capacity: health centres	− 2.0	20.0	Not selected	− 0.10*
5	Health system capacity: hospitals	5.6	Not selected	6.6**	0.20**
6	Governance	Not selected	Not selected	− 4.5	− 0.08
7	Health information systems	Not selected	Not selected	− 9.3**	Not selected

R² for backward stepwise model		0.26	0.16	0.70	0.41

All regressions adjust for HDI in 2000 and total health expenditure as percentage of GDP. Backward stepwise models exclude variables with p > 0.2 and include variables with p-values < 0.1
*: Variable is significant at p < 0.05; **: Variable is significant at p < 0.01
^aInitial burden category is defined as: Low = < 1 case per 1000 in 2000, Middle = 1–300 cases per 1000 in 2000, High = 300+ cases per 1000 in 2000

ISSN: 1475-2875